United Community Banks, Inc. (NASDAQ:UCBI) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So, we think that’s favorable. Sometimes you get lucky. And so — but generally, we’re seeing some properties show improvement and gain traction and some are slower to gain traction. So, that’s the senior care and that’s really the driver in our three portfolio. So, your second question around CRE in general is that we’re seeing really favorable and consistent performance across the portfolio right now other than the senior care space.

Catherine Mealor: Great. Thank you. So, that increase in the reserve, would you say that’s directly tied to this portfolio or just kind of general CECL qualitative kind of factors?

Rob Edwards: Well, it’s — yes, so the — as it relates to CECL, the driver are charge offs, loan growth and economic forecast and really the drivers in the economic forecast for the quarter were the CRE price index and then not to the same degree, but to a lesser degree, a forecasted decline in business investment. And so the dramatic change was what Jefferson mentioned the CRE price index, but to a lesser degree, the business investment expected forecast also drove some of the allowance up in some of the C&I and equipment finance categories.

Catherine Mealor: Got it. Okay. Great. Thank you for the color.

Operator: Our next question comes from Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler Companies. Go ahead.

Stephen Scouten: Hey, good morning, everyone. Appreciate the time. I guess, if I could maybe dig back into the margin guidance a little bit more. Jefferson I know you said maybe five basis points down next quarter, but could you give kind of updated thoughts on where you think that cumulative deposit beta might go for the full cycle and kind of how you’re thinking about the floor on non-interest bearing deposits as a percentage?

Jefferson Harralson: Yes. Thanks Stephen. Great questions. On the total deposit beta, I mentioned, I think that can move into the kind of $36 million to $38 million range is what we’re thinking about. The — that’s what we’re currently modeling. Now, what’s going on is that the — you get a continuation of the asset beta too that I think will offset that. So, you have both continuing to increase the rest of this year and into next year. The DDA percentage is — I think we are modeling for that to continue to move down. I think it could be down another 100 basis points, maybe 200 basis points. I know that kind of 10 years ago, we were much lower in the DDA percentage. But I think our bank has much changed since then with a lot more C&I mix in there since then.

So, I don’t think we’re going back to where we were way back historically. So, I think you’re getting close. I really think that once you see rates stop moving higher, that’s when you’re going to see that DDA percentage start to stabilize. I feel like we’ve already seen it start to stabilize. So, I think it’s moving down. We’re modeling it to move down, but I don’t think it’s going back to 2015 levels or 2012 levels.

Stephen Scouten: Yes, that makes a lot of sense, Jefferson. Appreciate that. And then just kind of conversely on the asset side, is the repricing of fixed rate loans, is that kind of the dynamic that makes you think the NIM could bottom here in the third quarter? And do you have any sort of numbers for how much of that book will reprice maybe fourth quarter or in 2024, what have you?

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