United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Andrew Nocella: There’s a lot of moving pieces. So I’m not going to specifically answer the question. Our market share across every single one of our hubs is obviously improving and improving quicker than our capacity this year. This year, we’re domestically, I think the next six months are growing less than our competitors, it’s TBD on what our competitors are going to do. But we’re focused on delivering the United Next plan we’ve created and all the value that’s being generated from that. And our coastal hubs are the second to none as we’ve talked about a million times. But getting our core Mid-Continent hubs up to their critical connectivity levels is a big, big focus and it’s just paying back dividends left and right, and we think it will continue to do so.

What exactly our competitors do, I just don’t know. We will continue to face struggles on the delivery schemes from Boeing and Airbus. But hopefully, as Michael talked about, we’ve built in the appropriate insurance plans for all of that. So you can say better on plan…

Jamie Baker: But suffice to say, you haven’t fallen behind on a relative basis to the industry?

Andrew Nocella: It depends on what you’re measuring. If you’re measuring market share in our hubs, absolutely not.

Mike Leskinen: Jamie, I’d encourage you to measure profitability and our relative profitability, that’s certainly what we’re focused on here in United.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker: So speaking of TikTok, Scott, your industry commentary is usually very insightful. So I’d love your thoughts on the current headline risk to the industry from the incidents that may be out there. Kind of is this just a social media [indiscernible] or is it a pandemic hangover thing, is the lack of new aircraft thing, is the labor thing? What’s your view on how the industry is going to assure its customers that flying is as safe it’s going to be?

Scott Kirby: Well, safety is the number one priority at United, but I also know it is the number one priority at all of our US competitors. This is one of the places where we don’t compete. And one of the actually reasons that aviation is not just the safest way to travel, it is by far, the orders of magnitude better than other forms of travel. And one of the reasons is because — and in safety, we share data with each other, we share all the incidents and events that happen and we learn from each other and that’s what makes us so strong. I also know at United, we have a great foundation, a leading foundation and we’re proud of it, of our training, our systems, our process and our reporting culture. But it’s also true that there was — while they were unrelated, a cluster of several high-profile events that have happened at United and in the industry.

And I think that is an opportunity for us to take what is already — to step back and take what is already a very high standard of safety and find ways to make it even higher. That’s why certainly at United, we’re embracing this as an opportunity. There are already a lot of things we’ve done but there are going to be more that we do, embracing this as truly an opportunity to take the already high standards to an even higher level, and I’m confident that we will do that. We can do that while running a great airline for our customers, for our employees and for our shareholders. We can do all those things at the same time and we’ll come out even better on the other side, not just at United but for the whole industry.

Ravi Shanker: And maybe as a follow-up, the pooling miles is a very interesting idea. Can you just unpack that a little bit kind of what may be launched at this time, kind of what are some of the cost or revenue implications thereof? And what do you think some of the benefits might be to United and our customers as you roll that out?

Andrew Nocella: Well, we’re always trying to make MileagePlus miles more useful for our members so they can enjoy the benefits. And there are a number of members that alone couldn’t get that trip to Tahiti or wherever they’re trying to go and the pooling option allows them a better chance of doing that. I think it comes at a minimal no cost to United but it definitely enhances the value of the program. It’s, I think, pretty unique among the largest airlines and we look forward to seeing how it goes. So we urge you to pull your family members and see what you can do.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfenningwerth from Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfenningwerth: Just on the longer term CapEx, certainly appreciate you have to have a plan at a point in time based on the facts available. But how do you think about the path to a pickup in deliveries required to hit that 2025 and beyond, what are the dependencies in your mind? And I guess, what are the odds we enter 2025 the same way we did this year with that 100 or so more of a placeholder than a realistic target?

Mike Leskinen: And I do want to kick off the question by reiterating how important generating free cash over the long term is to us here at United and we understand too our shareholders. So that is something we are balancing. We gave you a range for CapEx of $7 billion to $9 billion. We gave you a range because it’s an acknowledgment that there’s some uncertainty around the OEM delivery schedules and production rates. We also are managing this business to maximize profitability. And so make no mistake, we’ll manage our deliveries as well in a way that captures the macroeconomic environment at the time. In three years, a lot can happen in three years. As I think about uncertainty for ’25 and ’26 in a stable macro economy, 787 production rates can — Boeing continue to increase rates, that’s going to be really critical also for the 737 line, are they able to increase production rates.