Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Brandon Oglenski: Hey. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Just maybe on the back of that answer, Jennifer, you did talk about a lagged ability to recapture some of the cost inflation on the price line, so I was wondering if you could expand on that? And maybe also just discuss your fuel surcharge revenue that does appear to be above fuel expense for a certain period of 2022 and the mix impact that Kenny was just speaking about?

Jennifer Hamann: That’s a lot there in one question. But in terms of the lag part, so there is that piece. When you think about our contract structure, so in any given year, call it, 50% we are able to touch directly. The remainder is longer term contracts and they roll over in some segments over periods of years. Now those generally have escalators, but there can be limits on the escalators and those are lagging as well. So that’s what we are referring to as having a lag impact. As well as kind of going back to the first question to, Eric, still very confident in our productivity initiatives, but we did take a step back this year. We have to acknowledge that and it’s going to take us a little bit to gain that back because the inflation is real.

That’s a real factor that is certainly above what we have seen historically when you think about 4% kind of number for 2023. So that’s that piece. You also mentioned fuel surcharge, and yeah, that was a positive contributor to us on an EPS operating income front in 2023 and so depending on what you estimate for fuel prices, that could be a headwind for us at some point. Overall, we averaged, I think, 365 for the year. Right now, we are paying closer to, call it, 315, 320 . So that could certainly be a difference when you think about year-over-year comparisons on the fuel surcharge revenue.

Lance Fritz: I think he also asked about mix.

Jennifer Hamann: Mix. I knew there was one more in there. So from a mix standpoint, yeah, I mean, fourth quarter mix was certainly negative when you look at it. And one of the things probably that really jumps out at you think about Intermodal, but in particular, International Intermodal and the year-over-year comparison, when you think about last year, International Intermodal was down substantially and then we saw it grow here in the fourth quarter this year, plus forest products, some of the Industrial segments a little weaker in the fourth quarter and higher rock shipments. So it’s kind of that all-in and look there, Brandon. Now I think it covers.

Brandon Oglenski: Thank you, Jennifer. Yeah. You did.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Ari Rosa: Great. Good morning. So I wanted to ask about the target for growth to exceed Industrial production. It seems like a little bit of a low bogey given the service improvement that’s expected for 2023, given the cost advantages for the railroad and then in particular the addition of Schneider’s Intermodal business. You have obviously see a lot of volume in recent years, but I wonder get a little bit more clarity on kind of what that means in terms of that expectation for Industrial production, I am sorry, for growth to exceed Industrial production? And then over kind of a longer three-year to five-year time horizon, how you are thinking about the prospects for UP to grow volume significantly ahead of kind of economic growth?

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