UBS Remains Bullish on ConocoPhillips (COP) Amid Cost Pressures and Softer 2026 Oil Volume Outlook

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is one of the 12 best commodity stocks to buy right now.

UBS Remains Bullish on ConocoPhillips (COP) Amid Cost Pressures and Softer 2026 Oil Volume Outlook

On November 12, 2025, UBS reduced its price target on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) from $122 to $117, reiterating a “Buy” rating. The investment firm cites cost pressures from the Willow project, which are evident from the $1-$1.5 billion capital expenditure increase for the project. These cost pressures, alongside softer 2026 oil volume outlook, drove the price target reduction.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) announced Q3 2025 results on November 6, 2025. The quarter saw production exceeding guidance with 2.399 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS reached $1.61 per share. Thanks to $5.4 billion in cash from operations, the company recorded $2.2 billion in shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks. Furthermore, the company lowered its operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion and raised production guidance to 2.375 MMBOED, bolstering investor confidence.

However, the Willow project faced cost pressures due to inflation and localized escalation, reporting an increase to $8.5-$9.0 billion in project capital guidance. Still, the first oil schedule is on track for early 2029. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)’s management believes Willow remains competitive within the company’s portfolio despite higher capital expenditures. Moreover, strong cash flow was generated from its Lower 48 operations, thanks to improvement in efficiency and reduction in rig counts.

With this, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) expects to achieve a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), a global energy producer, focuses on oil and gas exploration, production, and LNG development.

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