UBS Nudges Up Cracker Barrel Target to $60, Keeps Neutral Call

UBS has raised its price target on Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ: CBRL) from $48 to $60 ahead of the company’s Q3 earnings report released on June 5. Despite the bump, they decided to stick with a Neutral rating.

The update came in the wake of UBS expecting modest signs of a turnaround taking shape. The firm sees some pickup in momentum heading into the fourth fiscal quarter, even if recent results still carry the drag of bad weather and wider industry slowdowns.

Their expectations for Q3 were muted. UBS was projecting same-store sales to inch up just 0.5%, which fell short of the 1.0% consensus. EPS was forecast at $0.22, also under the street’s $0.27. Margins were expected to land at 1.1%, a touch under the average estimate.

UBS was watching closely for updates to Cracker Barrel’s 2025 guidance. The focus was on whether revenue would stay within the $3.45–3.5 billion range and whether adjusted EBITDA would hit the $210–220 million mark. They’ll also be looking for any meaningful shifts in store traffic, early fourth-quarter sales, and progress in key initiatives, like changes to the menu, marketing pushes, and remodeling plans.

The price target increase stems more from sector-wide valuation boosts and incremental signs of recovery than from any breakthrough. UBS still sees limited visibility on how fast Cracker Barrel’s turnaround can actually take hold, especially with broader economic pressure still in play.

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