TransUnion (TRU): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on TransUnion on Valueinvestorsclub.com by sirisaiah623. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TRU. TransUnion’s share was trading at $88.00 as of June 30^th. TRU’s trailing and forward P/E were 47.06 and 21.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TransUnion (TRU) represents a compelling asymmetric opportunity at a trough-on-trough moment—both in earnings and valuation—offering significant upside as mortgage activity rebounds. The market appears to underestimate the near-term potential of TRU’s Financial Services segment, especially given the pent-up demand from homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. At under 19x forward P/E, TRU trades meaningfully below its historical average and peers like Equifax and Experian, setting the stage for a rerating.

A modest mortgage recovery—expected to accelerate with the MBA projecting a 12% CAGR through 2027—could drive sharp earnings leverage, as mortgage comprises ~20% of sales and is highly sensitive to volume due to TRU’s fixed-cost base. Meanwhile, price hikes have already sustained mid-teens mortgage revenue growth despite soft volumes, indicating strong operating leverage when demand rebounds.

Beyond mortgages, TRU is seeing momentum in diversified growth areas like insurance, eCommerce, and international markets, particularly India. Its TU CIBIL business dominates the underpenetrated Indian credit market, with >30% historical growth and mid-20% expected growth resuming in 2H25. Management’s pivot from aggressive M&A to disciplined capital return—marked by deleveraging and a $500M buyback—further supports the bull case.

Transformation costs are fading, and free cash flow is expected to ramp. With improving fundamentals, margin expansion, and a more stable capital structure, TRU could see a multiple re-rating. Assuming a reasonable 25x multiple on FY26 EPS of ~$4.90, the stock has ~34% upside to $122.50. With several catalysts in play, including a mortgage reacceleration and international momentum, TRU presents a “loaded coil” setup with a favorable risk/reward skew.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on TransUnion (TRU) by LongTermValue Research in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s triopoly position, discounted valuation, and improved earnings trajectory. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 2.6% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as TRU remains undervalued. sirisaiah623 shares a similar view but emphasizes mortgage reacceleration and capital discipline.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.