Transocean Ltd. (RIG): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Transocean Ltd. on TheOldEconomy Substack’s Substack by Mihail Stoyanov. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RIG. Transocean Ltd.’s share was trading at $4.4100 as of November 28th. RIG’s forward P/E was 18.15 according to Yahoo Finance.

Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells in Switzerland and internationally. RIG presents a compelling investment case driven by catalysts that create nonlinear upside potential. The company has strategically improved its capital structure, reducing total debt-to-equity below 100% and lowering total debt-to-EBITDA over the past 24 months.

Its recent $500 million private bond issuance and equity raise are earmarked for redeeming high-coupon legacy and secured notes, further deleveraging the balance sheet. This positions Transocean to shift cash toward shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks, which are currently constrained by mandatory debt amortization.

Beyond capital structure improvements, the offshore industry offers a favorable supply-demand dynamic. High-spec drillers are increasingly scarce due to scrapping of idle rigs and rising offshore capex by IOCs, particularly in high-growth regions like Brazil, GoM, Guyana, Nigeria, Ghana, and Namibia—the so-called Golden Triangle. These catalysts create phase transitions where the probability of large upside moves becomes disproportionately higher than traditional risk models suggest.

Transocean, with its global diversification and niche leadership, is well-positioned to benefit. Recent share price volatility, including a 16% drop on the day of the capital raise, masks the underlying structural improvements, creating a tactical entry opportunity. Investors can exploit this nonlinearity through equity positions or LEAPS options, particularly those expiring in January 2027, which balance risk and potential reward effectively. By combining disciplined timing with exposure to these structural and industry catalysts, Transocean offers a high-conviction opportunity for outsized returns, making it one of the most attractive names in the offshore sector.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Transocean Ltd. (RIG) by Unemployed Value Degen in February 2025, which highlighted leadership transition, strong backlog, and structural tightness in offshore drilling. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 38.24% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as market fundamentals remain strong. Mihail Stoyanov shares a similar perspective but emphasizes capital structure improvements and catalysts creating nonlinear upside.

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Disclosure: None.