TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. on Make Money, Make Time’s Substack by Oliver | MMMT Wealth. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TMDX. TransMedics Group, Inc.’s share was trading at $150.42 as of December 1st. TMDX’s trailing and forward P/E were 57.60 and 60.98 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TransMedics Group, Inc. reported Q3 2025 results on October 29th, triggering volatile trading as shares initially fell ~15% after hours but recovered the next day, reflecting an overreaction to a minor revenue miss. Despite seasonal softness, the company demonstrated notable resilience, maintaining 32% year-over-year revenue growth to $143.8 million—its 15th consecutive quarter above 30%. Growth was driven by higher utilization of its Organ Care System, led by liver (+41%) and heart (+14%) performance, alongside 35% growth in logistics revenue.

While international sales remain modest at $3.6 million, TMDX is laying groundwork for expansion, with its National Organ Care System Program launching in Italy in 1H 2026 and broader European engagement targeted to materially contribute by FY27. Gross margins expanded 290 bps to 59%, supported by operational efficiencies and fleet optimization, while operating income surged nearly fivefold to $23.3 million (16.2% margin). The company’s deepening vertical integration—reflected in 78% self-operated flight coverage and expanded pilot capacity—continues to strengthen its competitive moat and profitability.

FY25 guidance was narrowed to $595–$605 million, implying 36% YoY growth and sustained 60% gross margins, while management reaffirmed its path toward 30% operating margins by 2028. Upcoming catalysts include the Gen 3 Organ Care System platform and the 2027 launch of the kidney program, which could triple the addressable market.

With a forward next twelve months revenue multiple of 6.8x, well below peers despite superior growth and profitability TransMedics appears significantly undervalued relative to recent sector acquisitions. The company’s operational momentum, expanding moat, and multi-year growth visibility support a strong long-term investment case.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in May 2025, which highlighted its disruptive Organ Care System and vertically integrated logistics model. The stock has appreciated about 57% since our coverage, as execution and profitability strengthened. The thesis still stands, with Oliver | MMMT Wealth offering an updated view emphasizing operating leverage and international expansion.

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Disclosure: None.