TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. on Global Equity Briefing’s Substack by Ray Myers. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TMDX. TransMedics Group, Inc.’s share was trading at $118.97 as of July 31^st. TMDX’s trailing and forward P/E were 59.75 and 62.11 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TransMedics is revolutionizing the organ transplant ecosystem through its Organ Care System, a technology designed to keep organs warm, oxygenated, and viable far longer than traditional cold storage. By tackling key bottlenecks—organ degradation, low utilization rates, and logistical constraints—Organ Care System significantly extends transplant windows and boosts usage rates. Clinical trial data highlights its transformative potential: expanded criteria lungs and hearts saw utilization jump to 87% and 81%, respectively, while DCD heart use rose from 0% to 89%.

TMDX monetizes this impact through a razor-and-blade model—selling Organ Care System consoles and high-margin, single-use consumables—while providing end-to-end services through its National Organ Care System Program, a SaaS-like Organs as a Service platform. With 21 private jets, 17 procurement hubs, and trained staff, TMDX handles organ retrieval, transport, and maintenance, positioning itself as a logistics powerhouse in the transplant chain.

The opportunity is vast: U.S. underutilization alone represents a $400M+ annual consumables revenue potential, and TMDX currently serves just 3% of the $39B global market expected by 2034. Future growth catalysts include a kidney Organ Care System by 2029, entry into international markets via a $200M facility in Italy, and scaling the National Organ Care System Program globally.

Financially, the company achieved profitability in 2024, posting $441M in revenue and positive operating cash flow, though free cash flow remains negative due to capex-heavy expansion. Trading at a P/E of 91, investor returns hinge on continued execution, EU rollout, and successful kidney platform launch. If goals are met, the stock could double by 2030, but slower expansion or margin compression may limit upside.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in May 2025, which highlighted warm perfusion technology, strong execution, and real-time flight data as revenue indicators. The company’s stock appreciated ~24% since Q1 outperformance played out. Ray Myers shares a similar view but emphasizes the SaaS-like NOP model and global expansion potential.

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Disclosure: None.