TransAlta Corporation (TAC): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on TransAlta Corporation on Stockdrifts Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TAC. TransAlta Corporation’s share was trading at $13.58 as of December 16th. TAC’s trailing and forward P/E were 708.69 and 51.02 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TransAlta Corporation (TAC) represents a unique opportunity in the North American AI and HPC data center market, benefiting from Alberta’s pro-data center policies and massive energy footprint. Known as the “Texas of Canada,” Alberta aims to attract $100 billion in AI-driven data center investment, and TransAlta is exceptionally well-positioned with 9,000 MW of energized capacity across 88 facilities in Canada, the U.S., and Australia.

Unlike speculative crypto-mining plays, TAC delivered $1.25 billion in EBITDA in 2024, with significant excess capacity and over 52,000 acres of grid-connected land, enabling rapid greenfield data center deployment near major fiber routes. This positions the company as one of the fastest paths to scale AI infrastructure in North America.

Recent Q3 earnings disappointed due to lower Alberta power prices and timing uncertainties around the Alberta data center project, but management clarified that the 2030 “worst-case” in-service date is conservative, with 2027–2028 still feasible. The market overreacted, as TAC is progressing toward final MOUs with partners.

Its behind-the-meter model, turnkey sites, flexible baseload and peaker power, and speed-to-market of 18–24 months give it a clear edge over greenfield competitors constrained by grid limitations. Conservative valuations suggest the AI data center business alone could generate $1.2–$1.8 billion in annual revenue, translating to $4–5 billion in probability-weighted incremental EV, implying potential upside of over 100% from current market levels.

Additional catalysts include AESO interconnection approvals and battery-based peak-shaving strategies that could unlock far more capacity than currently priced in by the market. With a strong management team, manageable debt, and operational track record, TAC offers a low-risk, highly undervalued entry into the AI data center boom, combining robust existing earnings with transformative upside potential from its energy-to-data center pivot.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Vistra Corp. (VST) by desperate-pleasures in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s diversified generation capacity, strong cash flow, and exposure to AI-driven energy demand. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 36.71% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Vistra’s financial strength and strategic positioning remain compelling. Stockdrifts Research shares a similar perspective but emphasizes TransAlta’s Alberta advantage and rapid AI data center deployment.

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Disclosure: None.