Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And so yes, we’ll start to kind of bleed down, obviously, managing in-channel inventories to protect demand in channel, while we ramp up production for the new product. And then when we launched that product, ideally, we’re at a point where we have minimal to no inventory left that — for those SKUs that are end-of-life.

Brian McNamara: Yes, I guess like the question I expect to get is your gross sales were down, what, 16% last year, and you expected to be down high single to low doubles this year, you are a grill company. So, I feel like the expectation is you would see kind of flat to up kind of growth this year. So, could you kind of quantify your expectation for the grill market declines in 2024, kind of what’s embedded in your outlook and how that’s maybe influence your annual revenue guidance? Thank you.

Dom Blosil: Yes. So, we are forecasting the category to be down in 2024. And in excess of that, the dynamic in the first half where we’re comping product load-in from last year, which is showing some excess declines in grills above the demand or the category forecast that’s built into our model. And then the second half nuance where we’re bleeding down inventory, which puts some pressure on sell-in or sort of two nuances to the year that are ultimately, creating a larger decline in our forecast from a grill sales standpoint than what’s built into our forecast from a sell-through/category modeling standpoint.

Brian McNamara: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Justin Kleber with Baird. Please proceed.

Justin Kleber: Hey, good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. First, I just wanted to try to assess market share trends. You mentioned grill industry was down high singles at retail in 2023. Just curious how that compared to your sell-through?

Jeremy Andrus: Yes. So, we believe, based on the industry reports and the work that we’ve done that, first of all, Traeger is relatively flat in terms of share. And this is something that we track on a quarterly basis. And as we think about what drives growth in share and how we think about this year and years going forward, our expectation is that our share will remain relatively flat. And as we lean back in the top-of-funnel and launched some of the products that are in pipeline, but the combination of these two factors will drive growth in share as they have during many years, pre-pandemic before we pulled back on top-of-funnel marketing spend.

Justin Kleber: Got it. Thanks for that Jeremy. And then just kind of a multipart question on promotions. I was hoping you could talk about maybe your promotional plans as we approach kind of the peak grilling season. This year relative to last year, should we expect less promotional intensity, just given inventories in a much better shape? And then bigger picture, given the promotional activity across the broader industry in the past few years, do you guys think the ability to kind of sell grill at full price, is there will be structural changes to that at all versus kind of how the industry operated prior to the pandemic?

Jeremy Andrus: It’s a good question. The industry certainly has been more promotional over the last couple of years. Our belief is that promotions for a premium brand like Traeger can be used, but sparingly. We have typically had three promotional periods during the year. We deviated from that cadence once in 2022 as we were working on channel level inventories, getting them healthy again. Our inventories in channel are healthy, our balance sheet inventories are healthy. And so in 2023, we return to our more traditional promotional cadence and that’s our intent in 2024 as well.

Justin Kleber: Very helpful. Thank you guys. Best of luck.

Operator: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed.

Joe Feldman: Yes, hi guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for the questions. I wanted to ask, how should we think about accessories in 2024. I mean MEATERs had some really strong run as of late and with the new product. And I’m just wondering, should we expect that same kind of low double-digit type growth again in 2024? Or maybe you could share some thoughts there?

Jeremy Andrus: Look, I would say we’re not guiding specifically to accessories. But as Dom and I both alluded to in our comments, our accessory business — accessories and consumable businesses have been robust, MEATER has been a strong grower. As I mentioned, we launched the MEATER 2 Plus, which was a very successful launch. It is — there’s a lot of innovation in that product, something that we’ve been working on for many years, even pre-acquisition. So, accessories are an important part of our business and we continue to invest in them, lean into them from a product/mix perspective, and believe that, that provides diversification, but it’s a nice opportunity to drive margin over time.

Joe Feldman: That’s helpful. Thank you. And then anything to note on the — for those customers that are shopping and buying grills from you guys, anything to note with regard to what they’re buying? Are they still gravitating towards the newer product, the product with the more fully-featured items?

Dom Blosil: Yes, I can jump in on that. Go ahead, Jerry. I’ll go. So, just from what kind of we’re seeing directionally, there’s been a little bit more pressure on premium price points above $1,000 than we normally seen, which is consistent with our comments earlier on just the continued pressure on big ticket items. That said, I mean, we are still continuing to see appetite for our key innovations. And I think that the reception for these innovations has been strong. And as we kind of watch the mix between connected grills and unconnected grills evolve over time, I think our installed base is now over indexing to the connected grill where we’re embedding more innovation and certainly, that’s the case on a quarter-to-quarter basis.