We came across a bullish thesis on Tradeweb Markets Inc. on The Diversified Fins Analyst’s Substack by Collin Cook. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TW. Tradeweb Markets Inc.’s share was trading at $116.01 as of February 12th. TW’s trailing and forward P/E were 30.42 and 32.79 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Image by Sergei Tokmakov, Esq. from Pixabay
Tradeweb Markets Inc. builds and operates electronic marketplaces in the United States and internationally. TW delivered a strong 4Q25 earnings performance, reinforcing a bullish outlook supported by accelerating volumes, disciplined cost control, and increasing capital returns. The company reported total revenue of $521 million, up 12% year over year, driven primarily by transaction fees and commissions, which rose 11% year over year as trading activity remained robust across asset classes.
Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.87 increased 14% year over year and exceeded consensus expectations, benefiting from higher revenue and expenses coming in below Street forecasts. Although operating expenses grew in line with revenue, Tradeweb still achieved modest margin expansion year over year, with adjusted operating margins reaching 46.3%, highlighting continued operating leverage at scale.
Operationally, Tradeweb posted record total average daily volume of $2.8 trillion in 4Q25, up 23% year over year, underscoring the platform’s growing relevance amid heightened market volatility and increased institutional adoption of electronic fixed-income trading. While blended fee per million declined due to product and client mix shifts, management emphasized that volume growth and market share gains more than offset pricing pressure, preserving strong revenue momentum. Early indicators for 1Q26 further support this trajectory, with January delivering record volumes and revenue, up 17% year over year, reflecting a supportive macro and issuance backdrop.
Looking ahead, Tradeweb’s 2026 guidance points to sustained growth with controlled expense expansion, continued investment in credit, international rates, and digital asset infrastructure, and stable margins over the medium term.
The company’s positioning around tokenization and digital rails is viewed as an infrastructure upgrade rather than a disruptive threat, with potential to boost trading velocity over time. Capital returns add another pillar to the bullish case, as the board approved an additional $500 million buyback authorization and increased the quarterly dividend by 17%. Overall, Tradeweb Markets appears well positioned for continued earnings growth, market share expansion, and shareholder value creation.
Previously, we covered a bearish thesis on MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) by Dan in November 2024, which highlighted revenue growth strength but emphasized declining U.S. high-grade market share, fee pressure, portfolio trading weaknesses, and valuation concerns. MKTX’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 33.61% since our coverage. Collin Cook shares a contrarian but emphasizes on accelerating volumes, margin resilience, capital returns, and sustained growth momentum at Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW).
Tradeweb Markets Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 39 hedge fund portfolios held TW at the end of the third quarter which was 34 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of TW as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TW and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW
Disclosure: None.
