Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Tradeweb Markets Inc. on The Diversified Fins Analyst’s Substack by Collin Cook. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TW. Tradeweb Markets Inc.’s share was trading at $106.26 as of December 2nd. TW’s trailing and forward P/E were 37.15 and 31.06 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Tradeweb Markets Inc., together with its subsidiaries, builds and operates electronic marketplaces worldwide. TW reported a solid 3Q25 performance, exceeding expectations primarily due to disciplined cost management. Revenue came in at $509 million, up 13% year-over-year but down 1% sequentially, driven by lower transaction fees and commissions, partly offset by growth in subscription and other revenues.

Operating expenses remained flat quarter-over-quarter at $253 million, resulting in operating margins of 50.2%, while non-operating income rose 36% sequentially. Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.87 was unchanged from the prior quarter but up 15% year-over-year, coming in 4% above consensus as expenses ran 3% below Street forecasts. Total average daily volume (ADV) reached a record $2.6 trillion, up 16% year-over-year, though fee per million declined 6% to $2.16 due to mix.

Management reduced the top end of full-year adjusted operating expense guidance to $1.025 billion from $1.05 billion, signaling disciplined expense control even as technology and communication investments continue. October revenue trends remain strong, up 9% year-over-year, led by international markets growing 20%, with double-digit volume expansion across global swaps, credit, and government bonds. The company also announced an agreement in principle to renew its LSEG market data contract for three years, featuring 9% annual growth starting November 1.

Tradeweb remains focused on capital discipline, prioritizing organic growth, selective M&A, and opportunistic share repurchases amid management’s view that the stock is undervalued. Despite muted market volatility, electronification continues to expand across swaps and emerging markets, and international revenue growth remains robust, positioning TW well for sustained long-term expansion.

Previously we covered a bearish thesis on MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) by Dan in November 2024, which highlighted market share losses, fee capture pressure, and competitive lag in portfolio trading. The stock has depreciated approximately 39.86% since our coverage as these challenges persisted. The thesis still stands as headwinds remain. Collin Cook shares a contrarian view, emphasizing Tradeweb’s stronger execution and market share gains in electronic trading.

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Disclosure: None.