TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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It’s also true in petrochemicals, where clearly there is a lower demand in Europe. We see the impact of European economic crisis, the macro crisis and in the U.S. as well. So in Asia, it’s still good. But – so that impacts the margins on polymers. We were, I would say, during the first half or first three quarters of the year quite preserved because of our position now it is an impact of these lower margins. So that’s why we – the $8 billion of cash flow we had in – we performed in ‘23. We think it could be around $7 billion in ‘24 as a guidance. In the Refining & Chemicals and Marketing which cause here in downstream, we cover the three segments. We are also working on the transition, in particular, on the South market will deliver multiplied by two of production in ‘24.

It’s in-line with what we – our customers are expecting because the mandates begin to grow in some countries. And we don’t have yet a big conversion of Grandpuits, which will bring 200,000 tons per year, but we are using part of the HVO we have in La Mede in order to convert it in some soft products to meet some expectations. It’s a good business. And again, that’s a transition. Transition is also, of course, in the marketing part on the electric mobility. We have a strategy we explained to you in September to concentrate most of our efforts, I would say, on EV hubs, on scarce prime locations, however, on motorways, and urban locations. We have built by the end of ‘23, 300, 350 hubs. We plan to have more than 600 in ‘24. And this also focusing as well is on HPC because the customers, they don’t like these low charging.

It’s maybe good in the Swiss of London or Paris. But honestly, if you want to really meet the real market for us is professional customers or, I would say, long discount customers, they are ready to spend 15 maybe 25 minutes, but more. So HPC, we have deployed already more than 1,000 HPC, and it will be more than 3,000. So rather that’s a number of charging points, for us, the real metric is of many HPCs and hubs, electric hubs do we deploy in Europe. It’s more – I think it makes more sense by just counting the number of charging points because the profitability of each of them will not be the same at the end of the day. And in terms of strategy. So that’s what I could say. So I’m coming back to the share – to our shareholders, which is the most important and the cash flow generation.

So we anticipate in this environment at $80 Brent, $10 TTF and 50 European refining margin market. We could answer some questions what we move this market, around $34 billion is in-line with the $36 billion we delivered, you make the math with the sensitivity. You are adding an additional growth of 500 in power and 500 in overall businesses, and you will find 34. So it’s very in-line with our or I would say, our strategic plan and road map. We will invest 17, 18. So we have free cash flow around $17 billion. And the Board in that context has decided to continue to grow the dividend by 7% and those remain as the final dividend will be €79 – €0.79 per share instead of the quarterly interim dividend were €74. And this €0.79 per share will be the next quarterly interim dividend which the Board will support.

So that’s for the dividend. And so this is – I will come back on it in 1 minute. And on the buyback, we have announced that we will maintain $2 billion for the next quarter, and that’s $2 billion per quarter where remains, I would say, the base of the Board discussion for the coming quarters and next quarters in this type of environment. And that’s, I think, the next slide, which illustrates this, I would say, steady strategy or steady policy, I would say, as a shareholder distribution. We – the quarterly dividend, which were at 66% during 2019, 2020, no decrease, 2021. We used the balance sheet. You can see it on the chart in the middle, the gearing ratio went up in 2020 because we decided to use our balance sheet, we were in order to maintain this distribution policy.

As begun to grow in ‘22, then ‘23, 7%, again, 7% of ‘24. So an increase of 20% in the last 3 years. And that, as you know, we did not decrease this quarterly dividend for more than – I was when I became CEO, it was 30 years or today it’s 40 years. And so it’s one of the age we maintain. And the buyback, we are a little stubborn as well. We increased to 2 since the second quarter ‘22. And so you can continue 22. But we increased it in last quarter because we decided to give back part of the Canadian divestment proceeds to the shareholders as a sort of exceptional. But – so it’s very consistent. By the way, as the number of shares diminish, I would say the buyback per share is growing, in fact, just even if the share is going up.

And just one comment about the dividend, I didn’t mention the 7%. We bought back in ‘23, 5.8%, 5.9% of our – I would say, of our shares. So for me, it’s the basis, as I always said, to return to shareholders, you need to at least increase the dividend by what you bought back. So the 6% were for me secured just because we have added 1% because there is a growth – it was a discussion of the Board of 7% because we’ve made 7%, it’s consistent with what we could maintain on the long-term. And so that’s the last slide because as I said, we know we have a gap in the multiple with our U.S. peers, but again, in terms of TSR, we are in the ballpark. Our ambition is to be able – is to continue to convince the market that we – so multiple of TotalEnergies should be higher.

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