Stephane Michel: Yes. On your question, so our LNG portfolio is globally a mix of long-term supply coming from our assets for third party, and of long-term sales, mostly in Asia. So if we look at that, we purchased fixed costs and [indiscernible] and we sell mostly Brent and TTF, GKM. And as we mentioned already in the past, globally, our portfolio is around 70%, 80% more long-term Brent and the rest is TTF GKM. By the way, as we do in electricity, where we try to fill that 70% long-term fixed, 30% merchant. And the last point which is important is the fact that we can sell either GKM or TTF because – and we have the flexibility to choose our index because of the supply logistics chain that we have with the regas capacity and the vessels.
Patrick Pouyanné: So we arbitrate between both.
Stephane Michel: So we arbitrate between both.
Patrick Pouyanné: LNG tankers.
Renaud Lions: Martijn, go ahead.
Martijn Rats: Yes. Good morning. Two questions, if I may. First of all, a slightly technical modeling question. But in terms of modeling the balance sheet for the next couple of quarters, I was wondering if you could say a few words about how much of the working capital that was sort of released in the fourth quarter will build up over the next couple of quarters. I think you said that some of it was sort of a bit of a one-off. And then secondly, I wanted to ask about refining. Because I get the sort of $50 to $60 per ton sort of base case, but I was wondering what your views were about sort of the risks around that, in the sense that, if you do global refining analysis, you get to the conclusion that, no, market should soften a little bit.
But then again, on the other hand, like all the capacity that’s being built is in the East, so the Atlantic Basin is actually quite short products. We have all the freight issues and the freight issues support the Atlantic base refining margins. We stumble from disruption to disruption. All these refineries are old. It’s cold weather, we have disruptions. It’s cold weather, we have disruptions. Couldn’t we end up in a situation where actually this turns out to be surprisingly tight and the risks to that are actually to the upside?
Patrick Pouyanné: You are right to separate both. Having said that – and it’s good if we have – we took an assumption of $50 per ton. If it’s $80, I’m happy. You have the sensitivity, I think it’s $500 million for $10 per ton. So again, maybe we are a little cautious. We see some softening in the market, because, again, price – crude price remain high. But you’re right, our fundamental analysis, it’s true that on the Atlantic Basin you have some bottlenecks in the system, the famous [indiscernible] in particular and all these type of things, which help the margins. But there is also an element of the Russian system in that, which begins – the market begin to absorb it at a certain point. So we have to be a little – I’m a little cautious about it, but that’s what we observed.
So I share your view, but up to which point can we quantify the upside, that’s more complex. That’s the difficulty. It’s margins of different products. And again, the last year also supported by the fact that the jet fuel recovery was – so jet fuel margins were quite good. So jet fuel recovery is down now. So we are more in, I would say, balance and normal growth, is not this hike linked to the recovery that we had before. On the working capital, I would say, $3 billion, no, more or less? Yes, something like that, I think. Because honestly, I will tell you, the story is the following. We had – last year, we had a release of $3 billion because of margin growth. So we are expecting to see the $3 billion being recovered. We struggled during the year to see them.
They came in the last quarter. We had more than that, the last quarter was a bit around globally $5 billion. But out of the 5, 2 are clearly exceptional. It’s linked to the taxation we should pay on the Couche-Tard deal, capital gain tax that we didn’t pay, we need to pay it. And it’s linked to part of these exceptional taxes but which we have put in Europe on refining. I don’t know if you know this war taxes, which has built a taxation, which will be paid, in fact, in ‘24. So $2 billion of [indiscernible] working capital, I don’t consider them as – the $3 billion came and go back and forth, so we could expect them to be released again during the year and coming back by the end of the year. That’s the anticipation.
Renaud Lions: And of course, we will continue to put pressure on the – on our manager to maintain with working cap as well as possible because…
Patrick Pouyanné: We want to come back – you want us to give us back of $3 billion, they gave us $5 billion, so almost $6 billion, so I’m – don’t put too much question. So that’s good. No, but it’s – so there is a little exceptional there, $2 billion, I said, which makes 1 point of gearing, I would say. If you want to translate it in – compared to what you said, we have $2 billion which came at the end of the year which could disappear. But I hope the year can also be executed in a good way and we will have again some cash flow, which will strengthen the balance sheet.
Renaud Lions: We can go there. Lucas?
Lucas Herrmann: Lucas, BNP Exane. Two, if I might, as well. The first was just on divestments and whether you’ve got – last year was a very large year for divestments. There is a lot going on in the business in terms of organic investment now as you build up in LNG, you start to build more aggressively at high-grading the upstream, obviously, integrated power. So I just wondered what you’re thinking in terms of scale of divestments this year, absolute figure as you move towards that net $17 billion to $18 billion. And the second question, Patrick, I guess, is a little more personal. It’s a big year for – centenary for Total. It’s also quite a big year for you in some respects in that this is year 10. And I’m conscious of amongst all the assets, etcetera, this company has, you’re also a very large asset.
The question is really how you’re thinking about your own lifecycle progression. I know Thierry Desmarest was CEO for 12 years. We hope you’re with us for a lot longer. But just thoughts on where you’re at, Patrick?
Patrick Pouyanné: Thierry was 15 years.
Lucas Herrmann: Including – I thought it was 12 CEO and 15 Chairman.
Patrick Pouyanné: But on this personal note, I said to the Board, as long as they are for, I will continue the job, as long as you consider that I’m positive for the company. The Board has decided to ask me to continue to renew my mandate, it has been announced in September, for the next 3 years. So I will continue. And again, I think I’m committed to the company. I think what we do is we have a very clear strategy. I’m happy to execute it. I’m part of this – it’s not only me, but all the executive committee, which is executing that. So I’m there. I will continue to be in the landscape of this company for many years. Okay? But we still have a lot of things to do. Then on the first one. In fact, we’ve done a lot in divestment.
That’s true, $4 billion, $4.5 billion from Canada, Kuchar, $7 billion. But we acquired a lot as well. You should not – it was a huge year, in fact. Because [indiscernible] Casa dos Ventos when you add – NFE – NFS. When you add all of that, we divested $7 billion, we add $6 billion. I said to my team, we don’t – we have done a lot. In fact, we invested $17 billion. And when you acquire $6 billion and you divest $7 billion, it’s at the end, we moved $30 billion of assets, which is an historic year. And so it’s quite an active company. It’s very active. And I think we will continue to do that. Because if I want to high grade, I need also to finance it. And I’m stick – I think one of my big lesson is the net CapEx investment maximum 18 is a good metric for us.
