TORM plc (NASDAQ:TRMD) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jacob Meldgaard: So we confirm, as you can see, vessels that are on the water now. I mean, this is a cyclical industry and it can be quite volatile over the years. So for now, our preference is for tonnage where we can, I’m going to say, see at least the immediate future. If you then look at, let’s say, 2026 delivery, I think if we were to think about it, it would be to be investments that are difficult to get to by virtue of buying the assets today. And my strong preference is for assets today, I think it would have to be really something special. On price or special on features, capability on an asset that has a long dated delivery.

Unidentified Participant: Okay. Well, thanks for that. The sort of the obvious question here is that, at some point someone needs to build more ships, these ships, as we all know, deteriorates by the day. And at least one needs some sort of replacement for outgoing tonnage. But I guess then the question, how do you suspect the continuation or what do you expect the order book to fleet ratio to stand at if sort of your billion dollars for 2023 comes through, will we see more ordering do you think through 2023 if markets all hoped up as most of us expect?

Jacob Meldgaard: I think it is that is that you will have more ordering, more contracting in 2023 than what you had in 2022. Significant people are also going longer dated. I think in 2022, people were probably more reluctant to buy, let’s say, a 2025, 2026 position today. There’s not much capacity as we discussed. So I think the contracting itself will probably be bigger. But what you will — what I expect is that, it will not at least in 2025, 2026 climb above sort of this 3% 4% that we’ve been concentrating. And then, of course, when you get into the second half of this decade, what is interesting is to look at the 25 year old sort of scrapping potential is increasing dramatically once you get out there. As I’m sure you’ve also looked at it Peter.

Unidentified Participant: Oh, yes. And that’s a point here. I’m very curious to see how €“

Jacob Meldgaard: The way we think about it is that, we actually did spend time in China and in Korea a little earlier this year when it was opened up, and we sort of — we have our own view on what is the realistic availability of the shipyard capacity in 2025, 2026, 2027. And we model it here as if all of that will be filled and when we get that, that’s the extreme case, that’s where these shipyards do not get attracted by dry cargo or container or LNG or other segments. And in that scenario, there is still a very manageable order book that you get to. This is all — it’s quite dynamic obviously. And it is outside of our two to three year discussion that we’ve just had. I think that it is totally plausible that the fleet — additional fleet will be subdued at least up to and including 2026.

And then when you get past that point, the fleet that needs to go to recycling is increasing dramatically. That’s why we like that on the water now because we think that there is — now having 88 vessels on the water now, I think it’s better and let’s say having whatever 60 now and 20 out in the future.

Unidentified Participant: Understood, understood and agreed. The final question from my side, the ship per share transaction you just did now. Should we expect more of that for the next quarters?