A token generation event (TGE) can define the early trajectory of a Web3 project, yet many assumptions about what drives success do not match real market behavior. That is why Formula by Cointelegraph analyzed launches using strict criteria such as verified on-chain liquidity above $1 million and daily trading volume exceeding $5 million. The dataset included several projects, from infrastructure leaders like WalletConnect and Mind Network to newer ecosystems such as Initia and Cookie DAO.
The findings challenged some of the industry’s most common beliefs. Brand size, fundraising totals, and social reach mattered far less than expected. Instead, the research highlighted five factors that consistently shaped outcomes. The TGE research offered one of the clearest views yet into what actually drives a strong launch in today’s market.
Below are the five factors that most consistently shaped TGE outcomes.
1. A narrative that fits the moment
One of the strongest findings in the research was the importance of a timely and relevant narrative. Seven of the top-performing TGEs had at least two years of brand development behind them, but two notable outliers achieved exceptional early results with almost no history. Their advantage came from communicating a story that matched the market narrative at the time of launch.
Ethena’s synthetic dollar positioning, StakeStone’s cross-chain yield framework, and Fartcoin’s combination of meme culture and AI captured attention because they fit what users were already discussing. This alignment built familiarity and trust, even for younger brands.
A strong narrative needs clarity and purpose supported by verifiable progress. When teams communicate their mission, the problem they solve, the people building it, and any credible partners or investors backing them, users quickly understand why the token exists. Even early-stage projects can outperform if the story is sharp and grounded in evidence.
2. Product market fit with real development behind it
Narrative attracts attention, but product market fit is what determines whether that attention converts into sustained demand.
Teams that performed strongly provided visible proof that their product was real and progressing. Examples included independent audits, working applications, grants or licenses, and demonstrable ecosystem activity. These signals played an important role in building trust and in reinforcing the narrative communicated before the launch.
The TGE research showed that users quickly identify when development is shallow or when a token is created mainly for attention. In contrast, projects with authentic traction and timing aligned with market needs generated stronger retention and healthier early market behavior.
3. A loyal community built before the listing day
The dataset revealed a clear disconnect between capital raised and the size or loyalty of a project’s community. A scatter plot comparing these metrics showed virtually no relationship between the two. Founders repeatedly confirmed this insight. Money buys reach, but not loyalty.
Loyalty is built over time through education, transparency, and meaningful engagement. Strong communities were formed long before the TGE through AMAs, workshops, quests, partner collaborations, and even offline meetups. These activities welcomed users who genuinely cared about the product rather than speculative hunters.
Teams that invested early in community building saw their audience arrive at the TGE with trust and anticipation. As a result, launch participation was more organic, and the post-listing environment remained more stable. Creativity also played a role, with teams using educational series, themed activities, or professional meetups to deepen connection without relying on artificial hype.
4. A PR strategy that goes beyond awareness
Across all projects in the research, PR played a central role in shaping market momentum. Media announcements often preceded price spikes, suggesting that visibility was not a reaction to strong performance but a catalyst for it. Teams with excellent products still needed broad exposure to activate demand at scale.
Successful PR strategies introduced the full story of the project, including the team’s expertise, regulatory considerations, technical standards, development plans, and the user problems they aimed to solve. This positioned the project as credible and prepared users for the upcoming token event.
In the weeks leading up to the TGE, successful projects kept users consistently informed through news updates distributed both organically and through press release channels. This steady flow of information helped audiences feel prepared for the launch and reduced reliance on speculation.
One of the most persistent myths in the industry is that only Tier-1 media can meaningfully move brand awareness or support token price performance. The research disproved this belief. Large volumes of coverage in reputable Tier-2 outlets often served as the real trigger, creating momentum that later flowed naturally into Tier-1 visibility once the narrative had already achieved scale.
5. A liquidity structure that prioritizes stability
Liquidity design shapes user behavior from the first minute of trading. The research found that many successful launches allowed up to twenty-five percent initial unlock, which balanced market access with protection against immediate selling pressure. Monthly unlock schedules with smaller tranches were more reliable than daily or one-time releases because they aligned better with liquidity depth and demand.
Stability also came from combining three sets of levers. Depth levers included exchange listings and high-visibility trading environments. Holding levers such as staking programs and lockdrops encouraged users to commit long-term. Community levers, including quests, airdrops, and collaborations with KOLs, activated participation and reduced sell pressure. When these mechanisms worked together, unlock events became manageable growth moments rather than points of vulnerability.
A clearer path for teams planning their next TGE
Formula’s research provides a grounded framework for understanding what drives a successful token generation event. Strong launches do not depend on brand size or fundraising alone. They emerge from alignment between narrative, product readiness, community loyalty, visibility strategy, and liquidity design.
For teams preparing to launch in 2026, these five factors offer a practical blueprint rooted in real market data and user behavior. In a competitive landscape where attention is limited, evidence-based insights remain one of the strongest tools for achieving sustainable and successful TGE.
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