Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Douglas Yearley: Sure. So let’s start with sales. The sales cadence between affordable luxury, luxury and what we call empty nester active adult, which is for the first quarter, it was the same. We were down 50% as we mentioned, and each of those segments was virtually identical. So they’re all performing about the same. When it comes to the it is slightly higher on the age restricted than it is on the affordable luxury, and it is quite significantly lower on the true luxury, our bread and butter. So let’s just pick a number of 8% to go back to the fourth — to the first quarter. Age-targeted, age-restricted ran about 8.5%, affordable luxury ran about 8% and the luxury ran around 4-ish percent in that range. The luxury client is wealthier.

They’re less impacted by rate. They — it’s just a different buyer as we’ve talked about for many, many years. And we think we’ve had that advantage in a in a volatile rate market. With respect to what we’re doing with incentives, the increase in demand in January and now into February, when we look back on it, it was partially driven by us increasing some incentives, as I mentioned in the prepared comments, as we saw demand become more elastic we could incentivize a little more and see good results. But we think it is more driven by buyer sentiment by the seasonality by people coming back out, they absorbed — they were able to absorb the higher rate and they wanted to buy. And when they went out to the market, they realized the resale market is so tight.

There’s no opportunity and they came to us and they started hearing our salespeople talk about significant increase in traffic. The boss saying, I may be raising or dropping incentives and there became this sense of urgency with the client that, oh, boy, it sure sounds like we’re off the bottom. And I don’t want to miss this opportunity even though, yes, the rate is higher, it sounds like Toll Brothers maybe raising some prices or drop in some incentives. And that urgency was created, and it’s real. We are dropping incentives. We are raising prices. We’re doing it selectively. We’re doing it surgically, but it’s happening throughout the country, which is one of the reasons why I explained in my prepared comments that the — today’s incentive is less than it was back in December, and we think that’s going to continue to go down.

So that’s the market environment. That’s the breakdown between our product mix. I hope I helped you.

Operator: And the next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

Michael Rehaut: I know there’s a lot of discussion. You just kind of alluded to some things around, buyer confidence versus interest rates. And it’s obviously very interesting that you’re saying the strongest sales weekend has been this past and that obviously, after a pretty tumultuous February so far. I guess the question is, obviously, sometimes it takes a little bit of time for a move in rates to have its impact into the marketplace. The NBA purchase app index was down pretty sharply this morning. So just wanted to get your take, as you’ve seen the volatility in rates over the past 6 months, 6, 7 months, how you view this most recent move, and obviously, it’s a pretty encouraging data point over this past weekend. But how do you put into context this most recent move over the past month.

And does it kind of create any concerns or anything in terms of traffic over the last few weeks that might make you concerned as you saw a lot of volatility, obviously, over the last 2 or 3 quarters?