Tilly’s, Inc. (NYSE:TLYS) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Ed Thomas: Just to add to that, too, is we’re going into the next few weeks the quality of our inventory, both in terms of quantity and the mix is really in great shape. So we’re positioned — we feel like we’re well positioned to do the business if it’s there.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

Mitch Kummetz: Starting with the Q4 to-date comp, I think, Mike, in the press release, and it’s down 18.5%. Do you know what that is on a sales basis? And then also, do you happen to know what both comp and sales are for that period versus three years ago?

Michael Henry: I don’t — all I have is what we just reported is the comp number. I don’t — we haven’t closed fiscal November. We’re in the process of closing fiscal November. So I don’t have all-in sales numbers to report at this early date.

Mitch Kummetz: Okay. And then you referenced the pull forward last year because of supply chain and some COVID. Can you remind us how — so I think last year, you guys did, I think, a 12.5% comp, if I have that correct. Can you remind us kind of how that flowed through the fourth quarter maybe on a monthly basis, just so we have a good — a better sense of the compare?

Michael Henry: Yes. So last year, ’21 versus ’20, November was the strongest month in terms of comp at a plus 21%, then December was about half that at 10.5%, and then January was a plus 4%. So it gets easier as the quarter goes in terms of those comparisons. This is another reason why despite how slowly November started, you look at all the historical relationships of how we just finished Q3, how we finished Q3 relative to 2019, it just — it all points that if history means anything at all — we have to be somewhere in the $180 million range for the fourth quarter. We just reported $178 million for the third quarter. Fourth quarter is larger than third in any way, shape or form, the way it traditionally was other than last year, you’re in the $180 million.

So it seems to make sense again, if history proves to be accurate at all. If something else happens, there’s no way I can predict it. I have to believe, despite our slow start in November that the holiday season will come and that some sense of a normal cadence of Q3 to Q4 will take place. Coupled with, the fact, we did just do nearly a plus 9% comp to 2019 in the third quarter, some level of positive comp in the fourth quarter relative to 2019 also gets you in that $180 million area when you contemplate, we have nine additional stores than we did then. So it seems to line up despite the soft start, those other metrics seem to point you to a place that says the business will come, it’s just later than what it was last year.

Mitch Kummetz: Yes. And do you have a sense as to how much of the quarter is in the books through November 29? I imagine the vast majority is still in front of you?

Michael Henry: It is. The largest we serve right around Christmas, as you would expect, Thanksgiving week is one of the largest weeks. But that last full weekend before Christmas, that last full week before Christmas, those are the hugest weeks of the quarter, those two. And then usually, the first week right after Christmas is pretty big before — then for the rest of January, the weeks get really small. So the great majority of the quarter will be in once December is done.