Dear Valued Visitor,

We have noticed that you are using an ad blocker software.

Although advertisements on the web pages may degrade your experience, our business certainly depends on them and we can only keep providing you high-quality research based articles as long as we can display ads on our pages.

To view this article, you can disable your ad blocker and refresh this page or simply login.

We only allow registered users to use ad blockers. You can sign up for free by clicking here or you can login if you are already a member.

Tiffany & Co. (TIF), Burberry Group plc (BRBY), LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA(ADR) (LVMUY): Forecasting the Luxury Goods Industry

Burberry Group plcThe luxury goods sector is growing fast, hand-in-hand with the growth of wealth in the developing world. Countries such as Russia,China and Brazil are creating thousands of new rich families every year. One of the many direct results of this trend — which could last many decades — has been the tremendous growth of high-end-luxury companies. Here I will try to forecast next quarter’s results for my top three luxury goods companies.

British chic-style

Burberry Group plc (LON:BRBY) has been an incredibly successful story so far. The company has been able to reshape itself and become a symbol of British chic-elegance. The numbers speak for themselves. Last quarter’s organic growth was 10% year-over-year with retail same-store-sales — the most relevant performance figure for the industry — up by 8%.

For the coming quarter, I expect organic growth to come as high as 5% year-over-year and retail same-store-sales to come up by 6%. The reason to expect overall growth coming at just 5% is that I expect a decline in wholesale. Regardless, the company remains extremely healthy.

Most importantly, there is huge room for margin improvement. While a company like Gucci has operating margins of 31%, Burberry has operating margins of 17%. The reason is that Burberry Group plc (LON:BRBY)’s operating expenses have remained high due to the upcoming changes regarding its beauty division and its business in Japan.

Trading at 2013 20 times P/E and paying a 2.95% cash dividend yield, I love this British chic-style company.

The world-wide king of luxury

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA(ADR) (OTCMKTS:LVMUY), the always expanding multi-brand wine and spirits to bags and clothing holding, is my favorite large capitalization luxury goods company. The company’s last quarter was a very healthy one. The group’s organic growth was 10% year-over-year with fashion and leather (35% of sales and 53% of the company’s profits) growing by 5%. Other parts of the group showed faster growth: Sephora, Bulgari jewelry, Dior perfumes and Hennessy are growing seriously fast.

I expect this luxury giant to show good first half 2013 results. I would expect 8% year-over-year organic growth (4% year-over-year for fashion and leather) and a broadly stable 21% operating margin.

Even when LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA(ADR) (OTCMKTS:LVMUY)’s market price ultimately depends on LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA(ADR) (OTCMKTS:LVMUY)’s top-line momentum in Asia (where the brand is not opening additional stores in order to protect the brand’s exclusivity), I think the company is always a great asset to own. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA(ADR) (OTCMKTS:LVMUY) trades at 2013 17 times P/E and pays a 2% cash dividend yield.

DOWNLOAD FREE REPORT: Warren Buffett's Best Stock Picks

Let Warren Buffett, George Soros, Steve Cohen, and Daniel Loeb WORK FOR YOU.

If you want to beat the low cost index funds by 19 percentage points per year, look no further than our monthly newsletter.In this free report you can find an in-depth analysis of the performance of Warren Buffett's entire historical stock picks. We uncovered Warren Buffett's Best Stock Picks and a way to for Buffett to improve his returns by more than 4 percentage points per year.

Bonus Biotech Stock Pick: You can also find a detailed bonus biotech stock pick that we expect to return more than 50% within 12 months.
Subscribe me to Insider Monkey's Free Daily Newsletter
This is a FREE report from Insider Monkey. Credit Card is NOT required.