1: Skewed results
American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) has beaten analyst estimates for the past four consecutive quarters, but the first quarter’s results were slightly off-putting to investors and analysts at first glance. Because the company was reporting a year-over-year decline, most initial reactions were that the company wasn’t going in the right direction, but the opposite was true. In its quest to realign operations with its traditional insurance pedigree, the company had sold many of its non-core businesses in 2012, thus skewing the organic earnings growth.
Investors shouldn’t be surprised to see a similar occurrence in the forthcoming second-quarter results. But be assured that AIG has focused on creating a leaner, meaner, earnings-generating machine.
2: Specific focus on three key areas
Changes in the market over the past several months will put pressure on AIG to address how it’s been handling those complications in order to assuage any investor concerns. First, the speculation over Fed stimulus changes has affected interest rates, the bond market, and of course the equities market. Because investment income is such a huge part of an insurance business’s revenue stream, pressure on all three aspects of investing may have affected the valuation of American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG)‘s investment portfolio.
Keep an eye out for any sign that the company has changed its strategy. For example, in its first-quarter earnings report, rival The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) noted that it would be focusing on more cash-generating investment options to align itself more with the low interest rate environment. American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) hasn’t noted any such changes, but investors should be aware that doing so may forfeit future investment income.
Second, progress in Asian markets will be another important area of focus for AIG investors. With the company essentially doubling down on its investment in the PICC Group in China, its exposure may become a liability if growth continues to slow in the People’s Republic. Also, the insurer just announced recently that it would be restructuring its operations in Japan — another country that has been struggling financially as of late.
And finally, the traditional measure of an insurer’s progress with cost management — the combined ratio — will be scrutinized as usual. As a tally of the company’s costs and losses to its premiums, the combined ratio will give you the dollar amount of the money the company spends per $100 of premiums. American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) had the largest decrease in its combined ratio when compared to rivals, but it still had the highest ratio of the group. Travelers Companies Inc (NYSE:TRV), which reported earnings last week, reported a 6.3 point decline for its combined ratio, so AIG investors should be looking for a similar result.
3: Reductions in debt
As CEO Robert Benmosche noted in the first-quarter earnings conference call, AIG has been purposely delaying the reinstatement of a dividend or share buyback plan until other operational goals are met. Most talked about during the call was the company’s efforts to cut down its debt burden and reduce interest expenses. The company has made a huge dent in this goal, but investors should be looking to see if there are any more indications that American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) has further to go. Meeting the goals set forth in the first-quarter earnings report will bring investors another step closer to some capital disbursements. The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) recently announced a $0.25 per share dividend for investors, so AIG’s investors may be chomping at the bit for a similar announcement.
What’s cookin’, good lookin’?
Though there are plenty of extraneous items that could be causing investors some concern, the insurer has been focusing on getting operations into ship-shape, with long-term growth in mind. As long-term investors, the items noted above will be keys to determining whether or not the company is setting the right goals and meeting them. Be sure to log in to Fool.com later in the week for coverage of the actual results.
The article 3 Things to Watch for in the AIG Earnings Report originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Jessica Alling.
Fool contributor Jessica Alling has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends American International Group. The Motley Fool owns shares of American International Group and has the following options: long January 2014 $25 calls on American International Group.
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