The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Elyse Greenspan: Okay. Thank you. Then on, within personal auto, what percent of your states or premium still have non-rate restrictions in place.

Michael Klein: Elyse, I don’t think we’ll get more specific than the majority, but you can think of the non-rate restrictions as tracking very closely with where we see written adequacy state-by-state. So the majority of the premium is in states where we have relaxed some of those or tempered some of those non-rate actions because the majority of premium is in states where we’ve got target returns on a written basis. And again, as I indicated in the – in my prepared remarks, we’ll continue to follow that path as more states get adequate will temper actions in those states as they reach adequacy.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ryan Tunis: Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I guess my question is just looking at the rate slides. We saw an acceleration of pricing in middle market in Select obviously, a decelerated headline. So I’m guessing that means there’s deceleration in national property. Could you just, I guess, talk a little bit about the relative pricing dynamics in those three markets?

Gregory Toczydlowski: Good morning, Ryan. It’s Greg. Yeah. You can see, if you look at underneath the pricing, you can see rate is up in both the middle market and Select business. So the residual that makes up the total BI, you’re correct, the preponderance of that is national property. And so a couple of dynamics this quarter in National Property One is when that plays out to the total book, we did have less weight on a net written premium national property this quarter, quarter four versus quarter three and quarter two. And we did have a tick down overall in rates national property also just given where the returns are in that business, and the business is performing extremely well.

Alan Schnitzer: But make no mistake, Ryan, the overall rate change and renewal price change in the property line continues to be very strong.

Ryan Tunis: Got it. Thanks. And then just a follow-up. We’re not used to seeing this type of margin expansion in Business Insurance. I would think that would mean that’s largely attributable to short tail lines. But I guess I was also curious, obviously, rate’s been running an excessive onstream and casualties well for a while. We have been really talked about changing loss picks or anything like that. But was there a change on the casualty side to I guess, loss picks in the fourth quarter? Any true-up to the current year or something like that we should be aware of?

Dan Frey: No, Ryan. It’s Dan. Like, if we have an unusual item in the quarter that’s sort of non-run rate, we’ll usually try and call it out for you, including some kind of year-to-date catch-up, Michael referred to it in PI auto, but you didn’t hear Greg talk about anything significant in BI because there wasn’t really anything significant in BI. So we do – what we always do, right, go through all the lines there’s puts and takes across every line, looking at frequency and severity. But on the whole, no big change in our view of blended trend.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Michael Zaremski: Hey. Thanks. Good morning. Happy Friday. First question is maybe looking for a little bit more color on some of the pleasantly surprising commentary about the general liability and umbrella returns still being very good despite but someone else had pointed out, was five of the last seven quarters adding to reserves. So just curious, is there any more — can you elaborate on that? Is that maybe you’re taking into account the — you don’t typically hear that. Maybe it’s the investment income that’s helping or its sold as part of a package. And so the rest of the products are running at better returns or anything you could add to that? Thanks.

Dan Frey: Hey, Mike. It’s Dan. So we’re thinking about the returns, and that is our all-in view of return, but we are specifically looking at those lines when we make that comment, although, we do, to your point, also pay a lot of attention to returns on an account basis. But those comments were specific to the liability and umbrella lines. And this really goes back to the comment that Alan made a couple of quarters ago, which is — the amounts that were, I’ll say, tweaking prior year reserve development by is really pretty modest in the scope and the scheme of those reserves. And when we look at the total volume of business that we’re writing and the returns on an over time basis, we still both like both of those lines very much.

Alan Schnitzer: Another way to think about it, Mike, might be that you think about it in terms of rate adequacy and you might have an attractive rate adequacy, you might make an adjustment to it. It might be to one degree or another, slightly less rate adequate, nonetheless, you like the rate adequacy. So that’s — it’s in that context, we say we continue to like to returns in those lines.

Michael Zaremski: Okay. That’s helpful. And my follow-up, Alan, you continue to mention and show gauges of free cash flow. You also mentioned that it’s — I still don’t think it’s appreciated, at least I don’t appreciate it, why it’s important. So maybe you can try to further elaborate on is it — is the increase in cash flows, which I assume is correlated with your increased growth. Is that actually aiding your ROE or what are we — why should we be focusing more on free cash flow, which has a lot of moving parts in it.

Alan Schnitzer: Yeah. I wouldn’t say it’s just growth. It’s a combination of profitable growth is what I would say about that. And as I’ve said, that I mean that’s what gives us the flexibility to invest in all the important things we invest in, return capital to shareholders and grow the investment portfolio. So without strong free cash flow, we couldn’t do those three things, and those are key to our operating model.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Brian Meredith: Yes. Thanks. First question, if I look at the underlying combined ratio on your Business Insurance it’s, I believe, the best it’s ever been since the St. Paul merger and public prior to that just on the numbers. I guess can you kind of talk a little bit about — is that a sustainable kind of underlying combined ratio, underlying margin? Is there more improvement potentially can go there? At what point do you kind of say, okay, the margins we’re seeing on the business are about as good as we should have and maybe more focus on growth and more expenses and other things. How do you balance that?