The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Dan Frey: Yes. I don’t think it’s really big enough to impact the way we think about the pricing on the property book overall. I mean €“ so again, we placed 45% of the $500 million layer. We didn’t attach it. If you look across the business, we have got $8 billion or $9 billion worth of property premium. It goes into our consideration of how do we think about pricing in our underwriting appetite. But we said sort of from the first day we bought that treaty and we sort of would have been happy if we bought it or almost as happy if we didn’t buy it, it was sort of on the margin. So, the absence of it is not really going to have any impact on the way we view pricing adequacy and property.

David Motemaden: Got it. Thank you. And then coming back to Michael, just wondering, I think in the past, I have heard you guys talk about mid-90s combined ratio in auto. And you said you thought you could get to written rate adequacy still by €˜23. Maybe just one, is that still the right combined ratio to think about you guys are targeting? And then any sort of view on timing of when you think you can get there?

Michael Klein: Sure, David. I think in terms of the target, obviously, it’s impacted by a lot of things. I think we have said mid-90s or even a range on the upper end of the mid-90s is actually, I think what we have talked about historically. Certainly, investment yields are better than they were when we talked about that. But I think broadly speaking, you can think of that range as where we are trying to get to. And again, as I have described last quarter and reiterated this quarter, we think that written pricing will get to adequacy on the majority of the business by midyear. So, again, that’s a leading indicator of what you are going to see in GAAP results, right. So, I have also talked about the price we are taking will earn its way into our results over time.

This morning, I have said you will see the benefit sort of throughout €˜23 and beyond. I think what’s important to note is the comment we made this morning about the growing impact of earned rate on the auto results this quarter, that impact will grow through 2023 as we have taken €“ you see more and more written RPC in the book of business as the year goes forward this year. We have talked about higher levels of written RPC in 2023 that paves the way for increased earned rate impacting the book of business quarter-over-quarter-over-quarter as you go into 2023. So, I think those are the breadcrumbs we are trying to give you in terms of how to lay out your expectations for next year. Obviously, the million-dollar question for everybody in €˜23 is what happens to loss experience and where the loss trends go from here.

And that’s the €“ if you sort of lay out your own view of earned rate versus what’s going to happen to loss trend that will sort of help you figure where you think the lines are going to cross.

David Motemaden: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan: Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Michael, maybe picking up on your last comment, I mean you say that you guys are going to reach within rate adequacy in personal auto. So, what are you guys assuming for frequency and severity from here when you make that comment?