The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Richard Kyle: I don’t think we made a comment. But within Process, if you look at slide seven, with renewable up high singles and distribution flattish, that’s negative mix within Process. So, we actually expect —

David Raso: That’s a little destock and distribution, that that’s sort of a — the deflator a little bit?

Richard Kyle: Yes, I’d say a little bit of destock and just moderating more of a sell-through. And a couple of our U.S. distributors have made statements that they’re looking to manage inventory a little tighter this year. But again, within that, we would expect, within this guide, for Mobile margins to be up a little bit, Process margins to be down a little bit. And then, as Phil also said, you have the currency impact across both —

Philip Fracassa: Yes, I was just going to comment, David, as Rich said, I mean our mix is really driven by the — obviously, the mix of OEM, not just in process but across the company, the OEM growth versus the distribution or aftermarket growth. And we have both the distribution and services sectors, if you will, sort of neutral for the year. But we got renewables up high single digits-plus, as well as a lot of the other OEM markets up. And that dynamic, compared to 2022, where distribution was up significantly, is producing a little bit of a mix headwind which would affect process a little bit more than Mobile. And then Mobile, a lot of the self-help we’ve been talking about over the course of the year around footprint and consolidations, and the like, should help Mobile, as Rich said, improve margins year-over-year with Process feeling a little bit of a headwind. But net-net, roughly neutral year-over-year, at least as we’ve assumed it in the guide.

David Raso: Okay. No, that adds a little more legitimacy to the guide. Just distribution is such a powerful force in that business, but the destock, if you can give us a little bit of insight on those conversations you’ve had? I think distribution is, what, I’m not including the services, just really distribution, was it 40%-45% of the division, something like that, if I remember correctly? How long is the destock when you speak to them? Is it just a slow grind down over the course of the year or is it more of a — you know, in the first quarters, and then they’re ready to go.

Richard Kyle: I wouldn’t overplay it. It’s more — it’s not an increase in inventory, which is what we’ve had the last two years, right? So, again, as you look at the comps, they’ve building inventory, so even a leveling off in going to the sell-through rate is a reduction or a tougher comp. And I wouldn’t say there is a big destocking, but lead times have improved, transit times have come down, over-ordering is over. And we’re just anticipating a little bit of headwind from that. I think we already had a little bit of a headwind with that in the fourth quarter, still grew 10% organically. And we expect a little bit more in the next couple quarters.

David Raso: All right, that’s helpful. So, not as much an absolute destock, just was a little more of a benefit in ’22, that we can’t quite ?

Philip Fracassa: Exactly.

David Raso: Okay. That’s really helpful. Thank you so much.

Philip Fracassa: Yes, and the extended supply chains. I mean, the extended supply chains have had a lot of stranded inventory in the supply chain that I think is coming out.

David Raso: All right, terrific. Thank you.

Richard Kyle: Thank you, David.

Operator: Thank you, David. We have our next question, comes from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Rob, your line is now open.

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