The St. Joe Company (JOE): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on The St. Joe Company on Value Degen’s Substack’s Substack by Unemployed Value Degen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on JOE. The St. Joe Company’s share was trading at $65.07 as of January 13th. JOE’s trailing P/E was 36.33 according to Yahoo Finance.

The St. Joe Company (JOE) stands out as a resilient real estate developer positioned to benefit from powerful internal migration trends to Florida’s panhandle, even as broader demographic headwinds weigh on the U.S. housing market. While national real estate sentiment has softened amid population outflows, JOE’s focus on upper-middle-class communities near the coast provides insulation from these pressures. Beach-adjacent property remains inherently scarce, sustaining robust pricing power.

Over the past year, the company’s average lot prices have surged from $86,000 to $150,000, reflecting strong demand for its developments. Operational performance has been equally impressive, with sales climbing 63%, net income up 55%, and EBITDA rising 33%, underscoring the company’s disciplined execution and favorable market positioning. Management has complemented this growth with shareholder-friendly actions, including consistent share buybacks that have gradually reduced the share count and a recent dividend increase, reinforcing confidence in long-term cash flow durability.

While JOE may not deliver rapid gains, its steady compounding nature and strategic land portfolio in a structurally undersupplied region make it a rare long-duration asset. For patient investors, the company represents a high-quality, inflation-resistant play on coastal migration and lifestyle-driven housing demand. In a market often driven by short-term narratives, JOE’s enduring fundamentals, capital discipline, and focus on high-value coastal development make it a compelling long-term holding—one that investors can comfortably own for decades in tax-advantaged accounts like a Roth IRA.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) by Bulls On Parade in February 2025, which highlighted its undervaluation and master-planned community model. The stock has appreciated by 7.93% since our coverage. The thesis remains valid amid ongoing housing undersupply. Unemployed Value Degen shares a similar view in February 2025 on The St. Joe Company (JOE), emphasizing migration and coastal scarcity.

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Disclosure: None.