The St. Joe Company (JOE): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on The St. Joe Company on Value Investing by Double Alpha Factory’s Substack by Maksim. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on JOE. The St. Joe Company’s share was trading at $50.25 as of August 25^th. JOE’s trailing P/E was 35.39  according to Yahoo Finance.

The St. Joe Company (JOE) has quietly transformed itself into one of Florida’s most compelling long-term investment stories. Owning 167,000 acres of land, 90% within 15 miles of the Gulf Coast, the company is uniquely positioned in one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States. Historically a value destroyer that sold raw land with little added value, JOE shifted strategy in 2015 under Bruce Berkowitz’s chairmanship and Jorge Gonzalez’s leadership, evolving into a diversified real estate developer with a recurring-revenue flywheel.

Today, less than 2% of its land generates 63% of total revenues, primarily from hospitality, commercial leasing, and clubs, while the remaining acreage underpins a 50-year growth runway with entitlements for 170,000 homes, 3,000 hotel rooms, and over 22 million square feet of commercial space. This “virtuous cycle” model—where hospitality draws residents, residents create demand for shops and services, and infrastructure boosts land values—has compounded EPS at 25% annually over the past decade. JOE’s location in Bay and Walton counties, two of Florida’s fastest growing, strengthens its moat, with population and infrastructure growth, including a fivefold increase in local airport traffic, driving demand.

Risks exist in geographic concentration and interest rates, but prudent debt management, inflation-protected land values, and a shareholder-oriented culture mitigate downside. With land conservatively valued at $4 billion versus a ~$2.8 billion market cap, plus $1.5–1.7 billion in income-producing assets, JOE offers a 1.25–1.75x margin of safety. Management’s long-term focus, recurring cash flows, and growth optionality point to 20–30% compounding potential for decades, making JOE a rare inflation-protected, multigenerational investment opportunity.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) by Bulls On Parade in February 2025, which highlighted master-planned communities, asset divestitures, and undervaluation versus NAV. The company’s stock price has remained flat since our coverage. This is because the thesis has yet to fully play out. The thesis still stands as land holdings and NOI growth support value. Maksim shares a similar view but emphasizes The St. Joe Company’s recurring-revenue flywheel.

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Disclosure: None.