Over the next five years, it is expected that there will be a strong demand for deepwater and ultra-deepwater (UDW) rigs, as major oil and gas producers increasingly look towards offshore production in water exceeding depths of 5,000 feet. Despite this being a relatively high-risk area of operation, producers hope that the increased danger will be offset by larger and more lucrative hydrocarbon reserves.
Indeed, as of October 2012, there were 197 offshore rigs under construction, or 16.5% of the existing fleet. Of these, 197 new-builds, 43% are jack-up rigs and 39.5% are drillships. Of course, this construction is going to benefit National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) and Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM), both of which are specialists in their own field.
In particular, Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM) is a specialist manufacturer of high specifications of subsea systems and blow-out preventers. On the other hand, National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) is a specialist in drilling systems. Indeed, one of the best drillers in the sector, Rowan Companies PLC (NYSE:RDC), has four new drill-ships on order. The drilling systems on these ships are manufactured by National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) and the sub-sea systems are produced by Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM).
Each drill-ship is expected to be leased on day rates of around $600,000, 50% above the rate that is demanded for the company’s jack-up rigs. That said, the jack-ups have a drilling limitation of only 35,000 feet in 550 feet of water, while the newer, more expensive drill ships are able to drill to a depth of 40,000 feet in 12,000 feet of water.
Unfortunately, with the standard jack-up market expected to see a 16.5% increase in the number of rigs in operation by 2014, Goldman Sachs expects day rates to become depressed by mid-2014. However, the market for UDW high-spec rigs and drillships is expected to remain strong.
It would seem as if Rowan Companies PLC (NYSE:RDC)’s move into the higher margin UDW-drillship market will be highly beneficial for the company. Indeed, Rowan’s entire current rig fleet is jack-up, so the company is extremely exposed to a large amount of market-specific risk. However, diversification into the drillship market should offset some of the revenue decline that will be seen in the jack-up market from increasing capacity and oversupply in the market.
Rigs are costing more
Rising oil and gas prices are making UDW drilling more attractive.However, the costs of UDW drilling are also rising – good for Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM) and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) but not good for Rowan and its peers. In addition, oil exploration is being driven into harsher environments, for example the Arctic region. Moreover, there is an issue with technology as older rigs start to become outdated, especially in technologies such as blowout-preventers, drill depth and sub-sea systems. Once again, this is where the services of National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) and Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM) come into demand. In particular, Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM), which has a large aftermarket division.
Driving work to shipyards
This explosion in rig ordering is driving work to shipyards, which are generally experiencing a slowdown in construction activity as the shipping market remains sluggish. Indeed, the value of subsea drilling hydrocarbon production facilities is expected to grow from around $27 billion in 2011 to $130 billion in 2020.
Cameron is well placed
Investors can look to Cameron to benefit from the drive to higher-spec drilling rigs. Cameron is a well rounded company, manufacturing parts for all stages of the oil and gas industry both on-shore and offshore. Indeed, the company’s experience and skills are really in demand and the company’s order backlog has expanded 40% year-on-year (as revealed in the most recent Q2 results). Moreover, the company’s current backlog is equivalent to a year and a half of revenue, giving Cameron and investors a certain amount of clarity going forward.