The Middleby Corporation (MIDD): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on The Middleby Corporation on Iceman Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MIDD. The Middleby Corporation’s share was trading at $133.52 as of September 29th. MIDD’s trailing and forward P/E were 16.92 and 14.14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) is a global leader in food equipment, spanning Commercial Foodservice (CFS), Food Processing (FP), and Residential Kitchen (RK) segments. Historically, under Selim Bassoul, the company delivered a 39.7% CAGR from 2001–2016, earning high praise for operational execution. Since 2016, growth slowed, with an 11.8% total return over 8.5 years, underperforming peers. Activist investor Ed Garden entered in early 2025, taking a board seat to guide capital allocation and strategic focus.

Middleby’s CFS segment covers ovens, fryers, ventilation, refrigeration, and dessert equipment, serving thousands of restaurants, convenience stores, supermarkets, and hotels, including McDonald’s, Burger King, and Chipotle. Replacement and upgrade cycles, along with new build activity, drive steady demand, and a core installed base of equipment nearing end-of-life supports an upcoming growth cycle. The FP segment, slated for spin-off in 2026, focuses on protein, bakery, snack, and poultry processing, with higher aftermarket service and sophisticated buying processes, while RK targets premium residential products, including Viking Range. Organic growth has been modest, with prior growth largely M&A-driven; the Taylor acquisition in 2018 and attempted Wellbilt deal illustrate mixed execution outcomes.

Recent management initiatives include revamping go-to-market strategies, better aligning sales incentives, and emphasizing tuck-in, technology-driven acquisitions. Long-term projections anticipate ~2–2.5% organic growth, EBIT CAGR of ~4.8% through 2035, and $7 billion in potential free cash flow for shareholder returns. With capital allocation shifting toward buybacks and net leverage targeted at 2–2.5x, and governance improvements through board refreshes, Middleby is positioning for a portfolio reset. At $132 per share, the market undervalues upcoming replacement cycles, spin-off optionality, and operational improvements, with intrinsic value estimated at $160, rising to $220 in a bull case.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) by Investing Lawyer in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong brand portfolio, consistent dividend growth, and defensive nature across economic cycles. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 18% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as MKC remains a stable, income-oriented investment. Iceman Capital shares a similar but emphasizes operational improvements, replacement cycles, and strategic spin-offs at Middleby Corporation (MIDD).

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Disclosure: None.