We recently compiled a list of the Top 30 Largest Economies in the World by 2075 and in this article we will look at the country that’s expected to be the largest in 2075.
Emerging Markets Projected to Lead by 2075
According to research by Goldman Sachs, the global potential growth is expected to slow, largely due to slower labor force growth and projections suggest that global growth will average just under 3% annually and continue on a declining path. The global population growth has halved from 2% per year to less than 1% over the past five decades, and it is expected to fall to nearly zero by 2075. Despite a slowdown in real GDP growth for both developed and emerging economies, emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are projected to continue outpacing developed markets. By 2050, the five largest economies in the world are expected to be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany. You can also take a look at the Top 20 Largest Economies in the World by 2050.
The US is unlikely to perform exceptionally due to significantly lower potential growth compared to large emerging economies. The potential growth of the US is expected to remain significantly lower than large emerging economies such as China and India. The appreciation of the Dollar elevated the value of the US economy, which has pushed it significantly above its purchasing power parity-based fair value, but the Dollar’s strength is expected to diminish over the next 10 years, suggesting a likely depreciation. Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could also be among the world’s largest economies by 2075 if appropriate policies are implemented. Globalization has significantly reduced income inequality between countries and emerging markets have led to a more equal distribution of global incomes and global income inequality has decreased over the past two decades, however, income inequality within countries has risen, posing a challenge to the future of globalization.
Goldman Sachs’ research also discussed the potential challenges for global economic growth and income convergence. First is the risk that populist nationalism could lead to increased protectionism and a reversal of globalization. Populist nationalists have risen to power in several countries and have affected globalization. However, the risk of a reversal remains evident. Secondly the risk of environmental catastrophe due to climate change. Many countries have successfully decoupled economic growth from carbon emissions, demonstrating that this is achievable on a global scale. However, achieving sustainable growth will require economic sacrifices and a globally coordinated response, both of which present significant political challenges.
For the years 2070-2079, emerging economies are forecasted to grow at 2.3% and will continue to outstrip developed economies due to productivity growth of only 1.1%. Asia will remain the fastest-growing region with 2.0% growth, however, the Chinese economy is projected to observe one of the highest decelerations. Growth in Latin American economies is forecasted at 1.9% and is expected to grow gradually and accelerate over the next 10 years before decelerating once again in the outer decades. Growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is expected to remain relatively stable at 3.2%, due to an increasing contribution from African economies.
One of the Biggest Companies in Asia
Companies play a significant role as primary economic engines for economies around the world. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) also known as Pinduoduo Inc. is a prominent Chinese company driving economic growth. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses including Pinduoduo, which is an innovative e-commerce platform that connects consumers directly with small-scale farmers and offers a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment services. The company also focuses on training farmers and modernizing farming practices. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) also operates Temu, an online marketplace that connects consumers with millions of merchandise partners, manufacturers, and brands. Temu operates in several countries including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea, and South Africa.
On May 22, PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) reported that its revenue for the first quarter ended on March 31, 2024, increased 131% to $12.02 billion compared to the previous year, The company’s operating profit also increased by 275% to $3.94 billion, mainly due to an increase in fulfillment and payment processing fees. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) forecasts a robust revenue growth of 71% for Pinduoduo in 2024, and a further 29% in 2025. The company focuses on long-term growth and invested $403.0 million in research and development for the modernization of agriculture and supply chain thereby reducing its costs. The company has $33.31 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
While projections indicate a slowing global growth trajectory, emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are shifting the balance in global economic power.
An expansive view of the cityscape, showing the impact of the company’s activities in China.
Our Methodology
To make our list of the 30 largest economies in the world by 2075, we consulted ‘Economics in the Year 2100’ by Fathom Consulting, which provides data for the estimated percentage share of countries in the global GDP in 2100 and the GDP PPP of the top ten economies. We utilized the data for the GDP PPP of the top countries and percentage share to determine the total global GDP value in 2075. Our calculation yielded that the global GDP is projected to be approximately $324.34 trillion by 2075. After determining the global GDP in US dollars, we estimated the GDP PPP for the other countries to provide insight into their projected values. We also used the population projections for 2075, by the United Nations. Our list ranks the 30 largest economies in the world by 2075 in ascending order of their GDP forecast in 2075.
By the way, Insider Monkey is an investing website that uses a consensus approach to identify the best stock picks of more than 900 hedge funds investing in US stocks. The website tracks the movement of corporate insiders and hedge funds. Our top 10 consensus stock picks of hedge funds outperformed the S&P 500 stock index by more than 140 percentage points over the last 10 years (see the details here). So, if you are looking for the best stock picks to buy, you can benefit from the wisdom of hedge funds and corporate insiders.
The Largest Economy in the World by 2075
1. China
GDP Forecast (2075): $66.16 Trillion
Estimated Share in the Global GDP (2075): 20.39%
Population Forecast (2075): 1.02 Billion
China’s economic transformation stands out as one of the most remarkable success stories among middle-income countries. By 2075, China will be the world’s largest economy in the world due to its manufacturing, exports, and investment in technology and infrastructure. China’s GDP is projected to reach $66.16 trillion, accounting for 20.39% of the global economy. China has already overtaken the United States as the largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). China’s population is expected to decrease to 1.02 billion by 2075.
Curious to learn about other countries that will grow to become the largest by 2075? Check out our report on the Top 30 Largest Economies in the World by 2075.
At Insider Monkey, we delve into a variety of topics, ranging from the best places to live in Germany to business aspects; however, our expertise lies in identifying the top-performing stocks. Currently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology stands out as one of the most promising fields. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVDA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: Analyst Sees a New $25 Billion “Opportunity” for NVIDIA and 10 Stocks to Buy and Sell Before the Third Quarter 2024 According to Jim Cramer.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published on Insider Monkey.
Hedge Fund Resource Center