The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ed Kelly: Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Gary, I’d like to ask you about the dynamic between the LIFO charge and the FIFO gross margin going forward. there is €“ the FIFO gross margin have been good. And this year, there is probably $0.50 a share or more, I guess, in the LIFO charge in terms of the headwind. I mean assuming inflation eases, you get much of that LIFO charge back. Do we just add that back to earnings? Or is there a dynamic to consider when we think about the FIFO gross margin? Presumably, some of this probably still needs to be priced. I’m just kind of curious, is the FIFO gross margin performance that we’ve seen, can you sustain that when the LIFO charge eases next year?

Gary Millerchip: Yes. Thanks for the question, Ed. I think as you heard as mentioned on the call, we probably won’t get into a lot of detail around 2023 guidance because we’d rather put it into context of the full picture for next year. As you might imagine, there will be a lot of moving parts as we sort of bridge to share that color with you when we get to March next year. I think overall, though, certainly, some of the elements that you talked about are going to be key factors when you think about what will be at play as you think about 2023, if I kind of talk more in general themes. I think overall, I would say we feel good to answer your question about gross margin that we are very focused on and I think are proven for our model, but there are levers that we can pull to manage costs and sourcing effectively to improve mix over time with some of the momentum in our brands and the opportunities continue to accelerate fresh performance and innovation.

So there are a number of areas when we look at the balancing gross margin that we believe we would expect there to be longer-term stability and our ability to manage that. I think when you look specifically at the moving parts for next year, I think there is going to be a lot of factors that will come into play as you think about next year. You’re right in terms of if inflation normalizes and your numbers certainly correct around the $500 million in this year, which would be a $300 million year-over-year headwind because last year’s LIFO was also inflated as inflation started to rise in quarter four last year. If you remember, our LIFO charge is calculated at a very specific week of the year, even though we try and estimate it throughout the year.

So we would believe that as we will get into guidance next year, obviously, when we share our earnings, and we’re still sort of forming views around what we think will happen with inflation, but we’re probably looking at most of the external views that you are and most of the analysts’ reports that we can look at in the USDA, etcetera, would be in that sort of more of that 2.5% to 3% or so inflation for next year. We will obviously provide more color on what we believe, but that’s sort of where most of the data that we see tend to be pointing towards.

Ed Kelly: Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. Fuel margins have been really strong. I mean there has been €“ some of your peers in the industry have talked about that moderating next year? I’m just kind of curious as to whether you share that view and how we should be thinking about modeling that going forward?

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