The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Edward Kelly: Thanks for all the color. A question for you to start. Rodney, just kind of big picture. We’re coming off of an inflationary cycle that really none of us have ever sort of seen before. And obviously, there are a lot of implications associated with that. But as you look forward into ’23 and sort of thought about providing guidance, how do you think the industry is going to evolve off of the heels of that? Meaning what’s the level of inflation that you’ve embedded within your ID guidance of 2.5% to 3.5% ex Express. How do you think about like the promotional backdrop and how that changes? Are you happy with your underlying tonnage for instance or volume given what’s happened with pricing and what we’ve seen with comps at some like value players like Walmart, et cetera. Just kind of curious, is that how all of that played into the way you’re thinking about guidance?

William McMullen: Yes. If you look at inflation overall, we would expect inflation to be higher in the first half of the year than the second half of the year and the quarterly insights that Gary provided really reflected that. If you look at the thing that we feel really good about, and I shared specifics on the prepared comments, the higher income customer is really resonating with our value proposition, and we’re having meaningful increases there in terms of that customer. And one of the things I always think it’s important for people to realize is the profitability of that customer is higher as well because they shop for the full mix of our stores and they would be buying more produce in Fresh departments and Deli bakery, which is driving some of that profitability shift.

So when you look at overall, we feel really good on how we’re connecting with our customers. We feel really good at how we’re improving on Fresh. And when you look at the share that we’re getting with the customer that really focuses on that, we feel good about. When you look at it overall, we’re always striving to do better. And I feel good about the progress we’re making. We’re excited about the opportunities we have in front of us, and we still think we can continue to do better. In terms of specifics on inflation, Gary, I’ll let you share the specific inflation assumption because it’s pretty — during the year, it’s obviously pretty wide range.

Gary Millerchip: Sure. Yes. Thanks, Rodney. Thanks for the question, Ed. From an inflation perspective, what we’re seeing at the moment is that we’ve seen in the last couple of quarters, inflation has really sort of stabilized. And what we’re starting to see is in the Fresh categories, sort of deceleration of inflation, but grocery is — has remained pretty stubborn in terms of the levels there. So we’re assuming, as Rodney mentioned, in the first half of the year that a gradual decline, probably grocery remaining fairly stubborn where it is today, but some of the Fresh categories continuing to show some deceleration. And then we’re expecting sort of towards the end of the year that we get to sort of between low and mid-single-digit inflation level rates about sort of 4% to 5% would be our assumption around where we think inflation starts to come down to in the way that we build our assumptions for the year. And obviously, Our Brand…

Edward Kelly: Okay, just a quick followup…

Gary Millerchip: Go ahead, Ed.

Edward Kelly: Got you. Just a quick follow-up, Gary. The FIFO gross margin outlook for ’23. I think there is a decent — I mean, it seems like there’s a decent impact associated with Express, given there’s no P&L impact of losing the comp. Just how are you thinking about FIFO gross margin ex fuel in ’23?

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