The Howard Hughes Corporation (NYSE:HHC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And we’re really cautiously optimistic that we’ll be able to achieve those results this year. Clearly, as I mentioned in my remarks, home sales in the fourth quarter came down pretty meaningfully to about 250 homes. And what we’ve seen in January and February already has exceeded that quarter. So we’re starting to see a modest uptick early in 2023. I don’t know that we’ve seen enough data yet to call it a trend. But I think we’re pretty pleased with the results so far and hopeful that they’ll continue.

Anthony Paolone: Okay. And then just last question on the MPCs and with regards to Teravalis and Floreo. What do you have assumed for this year from, I guess, for Floreo?

David O’Reilly: Well, we’re assuming that we’re going to contract close to 1,000 lots during the year 2023. But we won’t be able to close those lots until we finish all of the infrastructure associated with them. So we see very modest contribution in that guidance in 2023 from Florida.

Operator: Next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb: So David, two questions here. First, just going back to Anthony’s question on the home sales and going back to trend. I think you guys said that MPC EBIT would be down 25% to 35%, which if we take this year, that sort of implies a 220 run rate. I think historically, you guys are at 180 to 200 so it’d still be above the historic. My question is, is this a case where because the value per acre is going up, you’re selling sort of fewer acres but at higher price points? And that’s why intuitively, we would think that land sales will go down more, but it’s because the value per acre has gone up that you could sell fewer acres but still earn more? I’m just trying to rationalize where is the home market today versus a few years ago.

David O’Reilly: Yes, it’s a great point, Alex, and one that I probably should have stressed earlier, that compared to ’18 or ’19 we can generate the same or greater MPC EBT with fewer acres because our price per acre continues to accelerate higher as the demand for our Master Planned Communities continues to grow. And I think that is part of why we feel good that we’ll be able to achieve these results. We spoke during the prepared remarks that in Summerlin, this past quarter, we were close to $1.3 million per acre, which is an all-time high. And it was a moment in time that I don’t know we’ll perpetuate for the next several years. It’s great dirt that we have left, and we think we’re going to sell it at a great price per acre, but I don’t know that we’ll be able to consistently achieve those results for the next year.

Alexander Goldfarb: Okay. And then the second question is just going back to the Arizona water issue. Obviously, it’s been in the press. You spoke about a 100-year certificate that you’re trying to go for. I think you also mentioned something about you have the water rights or buildable outlook for the next 10 years. Then in the media, there’s also stories about how agriculture is actually the bigger user of water, not necessarily housing. So just putting it all together because there the headlines that seem scary, but obviously, you guys presumably have done a tremendous amount of due diligence politically, geologically, et cetera. How should we really think about what’s going on here? And are the headlines that we see in the media, are those new?

Or this is always the case whenever you try to develop in a water — desert-type environment, and therefore, these headlines are really nothing new? And so far, everything that you’re seeing and even the governor’s statements are all basically according to what you would have originally underwrote?