The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Christopher Horvers: Thank you for that. My follow-up question is on the ticket side. I mean you are – if you run stacks or CAGRs on your average ticket, it did deteriorate in the second quarter relative to the first. So can you talk about the drivers of that? And how much of that is this shift to smaller-ticket projects accelerating, because you are going to start to lap through that ticket pressure in the fourth quarter. So is what you’re seeing now indicative of that shift from large to small is accelerating, so we can’t just assume that we sort of annualize that out in the fourth quarter?

Richard McPhail: Well, Chris, this is Richard. First, just with respect to stacks and progression, what we’re encouraged by is we’re seeing – as cost pressures in our industry sort of abate, we’re seeing ticket and transactions actually begin to converge. And we think that that’s actually a healthy signal in the business. So I think that’s the most macro comment that we could make about ticket progression. With respect to large versus small projects, certainly, our customers and our contractors tell us that there is some stance of deferral when it comes to large projects. Customers are opting for – they are more likely to opt for smaller versus larger, and that may have some impact on ticket. But we’re also seeing the impacts of what we call softness in certain large-ticket discretionary item purchases like patio and appliances.

So there’s a lot going on there, but I think that the – maybe the most important dynamic is just kind of that nice recovery in transactions as both ticket and transactions begin to converge and normalize.

Christopher Horvers: Understood. Thanks very much.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Lasser: Good morning, thank you so much for taking my question. Given this trend of small transactions coming in and maybe even replacing large transactions, is it more likely that you can take the low end of your guidance off the table of a down 5% comp for the year outside of some macroeconomic shock at this point?

Ted Decker: Well, Michael, I don’t want to go through the answer I just went through with Chris but – that’s pretty – that’s pretty much laid out the view. I mean, again, we feel really good about the second quarter. Clearly, we like the sequential improvement. And as Richard said, the normalization in settling, if you will, of a much healthier balance of ticket and transactions. But there’s still just a lot of uncertainty. Is the Fed going to raise? Are we going to get a budget deal passed? I mean there’s so many things out there swirling that – we just updated or reaffirmed in June that we’re just more comfortable standing pat right now.

Richard McPhail: And the other thing just to at least know that we’re watching is our share of PCE. We’ve watched this since our sales spiked in 2020 as not a perfect measurement, but certainly a way to think contextually about what we saw during the 3 years of unprecedented growth. As predicted, we’ve seen our share of PCE. As Ted mentioned, as we’ve seen share shift from goods into services, we have also seen our share of PCE steadily revert back towards 2019 levels. When you think about the bottom end of our sales guidance, that actually corresponds with the math that would say if our share of PCE reverted all the way back to 2019 levels, that would imply the low end of the guidance. We don’t see anything in our business today that tells us that that’s the trajectory, but that is the math of our PCE share shift.

And I’d also just repeat, Ted, we’re not sure where that share ultimately settles. The home is so much more important from a financial perspective for – you’d say all homeowners than it was 3 years ago that perhaps there’s an elevated level of home improvement spend in PCE versus prior years. We just don’t know. But that low end of the range does correspond to the PCE share shift math.

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