The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ:GT) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

And I think at this point it’s really not clear, John, whether that’s weakness driven by consumer preference or whether that’s something that’s linked to distributor behavior. Because historically what we have seen is distributors going long on low-end tires in an inflationary environment. So this is one that we will continue to watch. I think what’s different is what’s happening with imports in Europe. And I think if you look over the last five years the import, low-end imports of the percentage of the market have grown from something like 20% to 27%. And so that — what that means is that our distributors are more willing to stock, our consumers are more willing to bolt-on these opening price point tires. And I think that’s really a reflection of the impact of the very high inflation on the consumers in Europe and also just the more recent macro events there.

And so therein lies the rationale for a couple of the major restructurings we’ve announced in Europe. Hopefully that helps.

John Healy: No, it’s super helpful. And then just a finer point I wanted to ask just about the price/mix outlook. I think you guys are saying price/mix would be positive in the second-half of the year? Just thinking through some of the moving parts globally with the de-stocking or maybe growth in the import brand, to me it seems like that has a little bit of a risk to it. Do you see that as an area with risk to the business? And how do you get confidence that price/mix will be positive in the second-half?

Christina Zamarro: Well, I think, yes — good question, John, I’d say by the end of the second quarter, we’ll have lapped the commercial truck mix drag. We’ve been seeing the last several quarters actually that’s mostly finished in the first quarter here. In Q2, we will lap the impact of RMI Indexed agreements on price/mix. And so I think we get a clean base, if you will, for Q3 and Q4. And then the volume, I’m looking at in our back half of the year, in America, it’s really strong growth in our consumer OE business. We should outperform the market on share just given our mix of fitments. Obviously, heavily geared to truck and SUV, which creates a lot of rich mix for us. And then we also expect winter inventories in Europe are down 40% year-over-year, so really low. And that sets us up for a really good sell-in season in Q3 and EMEA mix also. So I think a lot of good reasons to believe in price/mix in the back half of the year.

Mark Stewart: I would just tack on one out on it, specifically around new products, John, and that’s when we look at the premium products launching around the world. We’ve got some great products coming into the marketplace for season. And for the Americas, we’ve got WeatherReady 2 launching, and the fitment’s filling out the Electric Drive 2 as well, which is an all-season EV tire for us, and the Electric Drive 2. And on the AF side, we’ve got the Eagle F1 asymmetric. We’ve got six sizes coming out, showing out that fitment. And then on the AP, we’ve got our version of the Goodyear Electric Drive there. We’re seeing some really positive success in both luxury, premium, performance markets in Asia Pacific, and the continued strengths of our wins on the EV segment. So all very positive, trending news for us.

John Healy: Great. Best of luck, guys.

Christina Zamarro: Thanks, John.

Operator: We will move next with Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Emmanuel Rosner: Thank you very much. Good morning. My first question is a follow-up on the volume question. So I think you’ve essentially identified two trends, right? Some of it is the lumpiness and this import dynamics in the U.S. and in Europe, and then some of it seems to be a little bit more deliberate as part of a Goodyear strategy? And you explained very, very well that lumpiness and the import dynamic and how that would move forward? I just want to focus on the second piece. I guess, how much more do you have to do in terms of amount of business or tire volume that you’re not really interested in or that’s not profitable and that will help your profitability from exiting? Just curious, when I’m looking at, I guess, your volume outlook for the rest of the year, will this be a meaningful factor of potential performance versus the industry, or are you mostly done with this?

Mark Stewart: Emmanuel, thanks for the question. And it’s, you know, I would start with your last statement, and that’s, you know, we’ve taken the actions through the first quarter that we needed to do with that. We’re really using a should cost and a profitability in conjunction, obviously with the cost structure, by tire basis and across our customer platforms. And so we’ve gone through to take a look at it. And it doesn’t always mean that we’re walking away, right? We’re just working with those customers for the right price point for that product at that performance level. And so it’s not a matter of everything totally going away. In some cases, it’s just a reset of the price to the market based on the performance of those individual skews or tires.

So we actually feel very positive on it that we’ve taken the actions we needed to take with it. And as we move forward again, we’ve worked with some customers in terms of getting the price points reset, and that’s actually been happening before my time, I think over really the last four or five months or so. But we took the final actions to that towards first quarter and expect those things to be relatively stable on that as Christina mentioned before.

Emmanuel Rosner: Okay, that’s great. That’s great, color. Then I have a question about the Goodyear Forward plan. So it seems in the quarter it helped America’s profitability quite a bit. I’m curious when could we expect to start seeing it helping EMEA’s profitability? Is this going to be still within this year? Or is it a little bit more back and over there as a result of how things work in Europe?

Mark Stewart: Yes, as we mentioned at the opening really, the SAG actions have already been well implemented and we’re on track to fully execute the 1,200 roles, which were identified are coming out on plan, if you will. And if we look at year-to-year, as we said, with AMEA really being about flat in terms of the earnings, but with all of the Goodyear Forward restructuring activities done, as well as the two plans that were announced late last year in terms of Fulda and Furstenwalde going through. And that’s also preceding two plants. So from that aspect of it, we are absolutely on track with the actions we’ve got in a man. Christina, anything else?

Christina Zamarro: Hello, Emmanuel, I just said that when we announced the plan in November, we did say that the majority of the actions would benefit our America’s business. It was a split of like 70% of the $1.3 billion was going to be accretive to the Americas and the rest split between EMEA and Asia Pac. I think we should expect improving margins in EMEA over the course of the year. And then as Mark mentioned, with the factory restructuring coming more to bear next year, then again, another step up in 2025.