The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on The GEO Group, Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by BlueFIN24. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GEO. The GEO Group, Inc.’s share was trading at $16.63 as of December 2nd. GEO’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.54 and 24.04 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

The GEO Group, Inc. owns, leases, operates, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and community-based reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. GEO has experienced significant market mispricing, as investor focus has shifted from its detention business to electronic monitoring, creating confusion around the company’s growth trajectory.

While post-election speculation centered on GEO winning contracts for idle detention facilities, recent data suggests that daily book-ins are now exceeding deportations, indicating growing demand for both detention beds and electronic monitoring.

ICE’s publicly available data, including biweekly reports on monitored individuals and facility utilization, shows that GEO is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. The company is the clear frontrunner for the ISAP V contract, which governs electronic monitoring for ICE and aligns closely with GEO’s existing infrastructure, potentially generating $650–$826 million in annual revenue.

Meanwhile, GEO’s idle facilities are being cleared for operations, with budget approvals now in place. Some facilities, such as D. Ray James, are operational, while others, including Flightline, are on the cusp of signing contracts, as indicated by recent job postings. The main bottleneck has been individual approval requirements for contracts over $100k, which is expected to ease as bed demand exceeds capacity. Once fully operational, these facilities are projected to reach capacity within a single quarter, adding substantial incremental earnings.

Valuation remains compelling, with 2026 US Secure Services revenue estimated at $2.4 billion and electronic monitoring revenue around $720 million, leading to a projected EBITDA of $774.8 million. Applying a 10x multiple suggests a potential share price of $45.50, nearly doubling the current $20 price. With catalysts including ISAP V contract awards and facility signings, GEO is positioned for a re-rating, combining a reopening of its detention business with a ramp in electronic monitoring, creating a compelling risk/reward opportunity for investors.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on V.F. Corporation (VFC) by Fun-Imagination-2488 in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s iconic brands, strategic leadership under Bracken Darrell, operational improvements, and focus on direct-to-consumer channels. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 51.71% since our coverage. This is because the thesis largely played out. BlueFIN24 shares a contrarian view but emphasizes market mispricing and growth opportunities in GEO Group’s detention and electronic monitoring businesses.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.