The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NYSE:NAPA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Sean Sullivan: Andrea, it’s Sean. I will take the first part of that question and then pass to Jennifer for the second part. I would focus first, if you recall, in the wholesale channel are three vectors, right? We have the number of accounts sold, the number of SKUs per account and then the velocity of those SKUs turning. So focusing on the first of those three vectors, we saw over the last year an increase from 59,000 to 65,000 accounts sold. We are looking, as we project forward over the next 4 years, our goals show a CAGR of around 7% to 8% of growth which puts you at about 86,000 accounts. So I think the upside of that, as you think about the story, is on a year-to-year level, is there is a clear path to support elements of growth that is foundationally laid in the number of accounts.

And then with our large white space, the fact that even in 2027, with these projections, we would project a penetration of about 27% of the accounts that would be appropriate for our luxury wines, we have a very nice runway there. The other elements of growth then support that. Once we’re in an account, it’s easier for the sales team to offer them one of our other wines in the portfolio, because of its brand strength. And of course, we like to believe and I think we have a good indicia [ph] of the consumer demand for our wines which then leads to faster velocity of those wines. And that’s obviously something that’s pleasing to the retailer and the distributor. So as we look at that on the whole, from just sort of as you’re building out the model in the longer term, that’s kind of how we’re looking at the wholesale growth and the components of it.

Within fiscal year ‘24, Jennifer, maybe you can take that.

Jennifer Fall Jung: As I noted earlier, within fiscal ’24 really is volume-driven. Our volume growth is supported by the account growth and obviously which is fueled by the depletion growth. So really focused on account growth outside of out-of-states, as well as just from a volume perspective.

Andrea Teixeira: This is super-helpful but just a fine point on the volume issue in the first quarter. It’s just like inventory buildup or just really tough comparisons as you go into the first quarter?

Jennifer Fall Jung: It’s absolutely really tough comparisons as we go into the first quarter. We had a very strong Q1 FY ’23 in our wholesale channel which was driven by the price increases and our distributors buying in earlier to get their inventory prior to the increases, as well as a few logistical challenges, we believe, happened on within our suppliers. They were making sure they could actually get our product. So as we look forward to FY ’24 Q1, we’re just copying those. So you’ll see the growth in the first-half but you’ll see it in the second quarter. And hopefully, we kind of talked about that on the call. Overall, we feel the inventory levels are super-healthy out there and our Q1 guide has nothing to do with our inventory levels out in the marketplace.

Operator: Thank you, guys, for your questions. There are no questions waiting at this time. So I’ll pass the conference back over to Sean for any closing remarks.

Sean Sullivan: Thank you. We want to thank you again for joining us today to review our fourth quarter performance and to present our guidance for fiscal year 2024. We look forward to speaking with you again in December when we report our first quarter results. Until then, take care.

Operator: That will conclude today’s conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

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