The CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)’s Family Trusts Have Been Buying Shares

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The second quarter of Carnival’s fiscal year ended in May, with the company recording a slight decline in sales from their levels a year ago. Reported earnings increased, but this was entirely due to smaller unrealized losses on fuel derivatives; in fact, operating income was down. Of course, Carnival also generates most of its annual earnings in the current fiscal quarter.

Carnival actually trades at a premium to Royal Caribbean in terms of expected current year earnings, despite the weaker financials year to date. Its forward earnings multiple of 17 also represents a higher valuation relative to its smaller peer (which is valued at only 12 times forward earnings estimates). The company is larger in terms of market capitalization and does offer a somewhat higher dividend yield (at an annual rate of 2.7%) but those two factors don’t seem to justify this higher pricing given the disadvantages we’ve mentioned.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:NCLH) is up 22% from its levels shortly after becoming publicly traded in January of this year. Its earnings have been low on a trailing basis, and revenue growth last quarter compared to the second quarter of 2012 was only modest. The sell-side believes that its earnings per share are poised for significant improvements next year: EPS are expected to grow by over 60% from their levels this year, resulting in a forward P/E of only 13. Since this only prices it about in line with Royal Caribbean, which seems more dependable if for no other reason than its longer history as a public company, Norwegian doesn’t seem like a good buy at this time.

Of course even with Royal Caribbean the forward earnings multiple isn’t particularly low given the company’s low sales growth. In addition, the stock’s prospects are highly dependent on how this quarter’s financials turn out. While the insider purchase is a plus, investors who are even interested in buying cruise ship companies at all would probably want to wait for the Q3 results before evaluating Royal Caribbean further.

Disclosure: I own no shares of any stocks mentioned in this article.

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