The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on The Boston Beer Company, Inc. on DB_Silver_Fox’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SAM. The Boston Beer Company, Inc.’s share was trading at $208.86 as of January 12th. SAM’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.26 and 18.62  respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. SAM, founded in 1984 by Harvard-educated brewer Jim Koch, embodies the American craft beer renaissance through its flagship Samuel Adams Boston Lager — a revival of his family’s 19th-century recipe symbolizing independence and craftsmanship.

Koch’s early decision to retain majority control and later implement a dual-class share structure preserved founder stewardship, ensuring long-term vision over market pressure. Through the 1990s and 2000s, Boston Beer became the torchbearer of the craft movement, combining traditional brewing with innovation across seasonal releases, barrel-aged Utopias, and later diversification into cider, hard tea, and seltzer.

Brands like Twisted Tea and Angry Orchard broadened the portfolio, while initiatives such as Brewing the American Dream reinforced Koch’s belief in entrepreneurship and reciprocity. The 2016 launch of Truly Hard Seltzer created a temporary billion-dollar boom, followed by a sharp correction, underscoring Koch’s conviction to “innovate within craft, not chase fads.”

Today, Boston Beer is re-anchoring around its core craft identity — Samuel Adams and Dogfish Head — while maintaining disciplined participation in the “beyond beer” category. Financially, the company remains debt-free, with strong cash generation and shareholder returns via buybacks.

Founder Jim Koch, who reassumed the CEO role in August 2025, continues to hold more than 50% of voting power, ensuring continuity of ethos and control. With normalized free cash flow near $150 million and best-in-class working capital efficiency, Boston Beer stands positioned for steady compounding. Management’s focus on profitability restoration could lift ROE toward 12–14%, with share repurchases amplifying returns — reaffirming the company’s identity as America’s enduring craft custodian.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) by Tyler Moody in September 2024, which highlighted its stable profile, fair dividend yield, and modest undervaluation. The stock has depreciated approximately 11.72% since our coverage as the thesis didn’t fully play out. The thesis still stands as TAP remains a defensive play. DB_Silver_Fox shares a similar outlook but emphasizes founder-led premiumization through Boston Beer (SAM).

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Disclosure: None.