The FAA certified The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)’s 737 MAX 7 on Monday, the smallest version of its bestselling jet, nearly a decade after the company first expected approval. Boeing shares jumped as much as 8% on the news, part of a broader rally that also included an analyst upgrade and falling oil prices. Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV), the plane’s launch customer, still won’t fly it this year.
Why Boeing’s Win Doesn’t Mean an Immediate Payoff
Two fatal MAX 8 crashes in 2018 and 2019, plus a 2024 mid-air panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines jet, forced years of extra scrutiny on this smaller MAX variant, which Boeing once expected to certify before the end of 2022. The approval unlocks real cash for Boeing, since manufacturers collect most of a plane’s price on delivery, and The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) already has roughly 30 to 40 MAX 7s and MAX 10s built and waiting. However, Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV)’s own planes still need extra-legroom seats upgraded before they can fly, and the airline says revenue service won’t start until 2027.
This makes you question: Does this certification finally validate Boeing’s turnaround, or does Southwest’s wait until 2027 timeline show how far off the real payoff remains for the airline that needs this jet most?
Boeing’s Bull and Bear Case
August 3, 2026, brought three pieces of good news at once: falling oil prices lifted aerospace stocks broadly, BNP Paribas double-upgraded The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) to outperform after being bearish since November, and the MAX 7 certification landed on top of both. Jefferies noted Boeing already has 282 orders for the MAX 7, and the FAA is expected to clear the larger MAX 10 “right behind” it. The news makes CEO Kelly Ortberg’s recovery plan more believable, especially after Boeing reported higher-than-expected cash flow last week.
However, this certification arrived years late, and Boeing still awaits approval for the MAX 10 and the 777X. Deliveries of both the MAX 7 and MAX 10 aren’t expected until next year even now, so the cash this milestone unlocks won’t show up right away.
Southwest’s Bull and Bear Case
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) is the MAX 7’s launch customer and gets first access once deliveries begin. CEO Bob Jordan said the airline is seeing “really strong demand” even with high fuel and high prices, and its average one-way fare rose to $225.61 from $186.65 a year earlier. Southwest also took an unusual step this year, shipping jet fuel by boat through the Panama Canal to secure West Coast supply during a volatile stretch for prices.
Still, Southwest’s own MAX 7 jets need seat retrofits before they can enter service, and the airline doesn’t expect that until 2027. Its fuel expenses rose nearly $900 million in the second quarter alone.
Insider Monkey’s Hedge Fund Data
Insider Monkey’s hedge fund database shows The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) had 99 hedge fund holders as of Q1 2026, down from 114 the quarter before. Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) had 54 holders, up from 47.
Among rivals, aerospace and defense company RTX had 95 holders, up from 79, and American Airlines had 42, down from 49. Boeing still draws the most hedge fund interest of the group, despite its reduction in holder count.
Conclusion
Boeing finally got the milestone it has chased for years, but for Southwest, the airline is actually counting on this plane, and the real payoff is still more than a year away.
Hedge funds are also confident about The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), preferring it over Southwest and other competitors.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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