The AZEK Company Inc. (NYSE:AZEK) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Rehaut: So, therefore, how should we think about incremental EBITDA margins over time for the Resi business?

Jesse Singh: I think once you move beyond this year and Pete, please chime in, but I think once you move beyond this year, you should think of SG&A as being positive to leverage.

Peter Clifford: Yes. We said it won’t happen every year, but most years, looking forward past ’24, we would expect, possibly as much as 25 bps as a leverage opportunity that’s there most years. And look, in the near term here, part of the investment thesis is, look, we’re continuing to clearly outperform the market as well as peers, so we want to keep that momentum.

Michael Rehaut: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo from UBS. Please go ahead.

John Lovallo: Good evening, guys, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one is, Pete, you mentioned that in the fiscal year ’24 outlook, that pricing is going to be relatively flat to maybe a slight good guy. I mean, have your thoughts changed on the ability of the business to drive sort of low-single digit price increases over time? Is that more of kind of a 2025 story? And then, similarly in the context of the growth algorithm, how are you guys thinking about material conversion in 2024?

Peter Clifford: Yes. First on the pricing piece. Look, we did some traditional product-by-product price increases here. Now that will be, basically offset by some programming costs on the gross to net to kind of net to again kind of a modest negligible price for ’24. Look, that’s a lot on the backdrop of the pricing that we’ve taken over the last two or three years. We do expect in 2025 that we’d return to a more traditional kind of annual pricing pattern. And as far as conversion, look, I think we feel really comfortable, again, based upon a ’23 performance. It was one of the questions that was open at the beginning of the year. Is conversion still happen? Does it still happen at the same pace? And a down cycle in our sector clearly had a slow start.

And the resolute answer was, it does. And again, we wake up every morning, we know the levers to pull for conversion. It’s all about converting contractors, it’s influencing architects, it’s making sure we got the right new product launches, that we’re fighting for shelf space so people can see the product and simplifying and educating the consumer in the journey.

John Lovallo: Makes sense. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, it sounds like demand in both the Pro channel and on Retail were both pretty good. Just curious on the mix side, if you’ve seen any kind of impact on, mix down, if you will, as the economy maybe has got a little bit more challenging and consumer confidence has waned to some extent.

Peter Clifford: Yes. generally speaking, our products mix has been really stable. As we called out on the last two calls, we were underpenetrated in the good category, right, due to capacity constraints during the pandemic. As we relaunched here, Prime and Prime Plus with ample capacity, we’ve obviously picked up some share this year in that good category.

John Lovallo: Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Jesse Singh: John. John, I think one of the things just to continue to highlight is, we are predominantly Pro and we tend to skew more Premium. And I think, as you see that, you tend to see pretty strong resiliency there and, we see it in all of our data. Our good, our more premium products continue to do well. And then, as Pete pointed out, we’ve been able to pick up, some incremental share at the entry-level. But I think in reality, the more premium areas continue to be pretty stable and growing, which is what you might expect in a — in an economy that, has a fair amount of wealth that, sits through, equity holdings and home equity values.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Susan Maklari: Thank you. Good evening, everyone. The first question is, when we think about the range that you gave for sales growth next year of 3% to 8%, can you talk about the environment or the factors that would take you to the lower end versus the higher end of that range next year?

Peter Clifford: Yes. I mean, ultimately it would have to be that R&R is, at the lower end of kind of low-to-mid single-digits negative.

Susan Maklari: Okay. Alright. And then, in the prepared remarks, when you were talking about some of the new products, the initiatives for next year, it seemed like Rail came up quite a bit, maybe perhaps more than it has in the past. Can you talk about how you’re thinking of the opportunity there and anything that we should be thinking about as we think about the next couple of years?

Jesse Singh: Yes. Susan, I’ll take that. We highlighted that we play in multiple markets and that we see good opportunity in all of them. Clearly, Rail is, a close-end part of our business. We bought an aluminum rail company in — at the tail end of 2018. We bought another rail company last year, which is a super-premium PVC rail company. And we’ve seen really, really nice growth from those acquisitions. And we have reinvested and reinvented our core portfolio by both simplifying it, but also upgrading it. And so for us, as we look at 2022, we’ve had really, really nice Rail growth that would be accretive to the growth that we’ve had overall in the Company. And we would expect that to continue as, we’re uniquely positioned with having an incredibly broad portfolio, and we would expect to continue to use that portfolio to expand our position on the market.

Susan Maklari: Okay. Thank you. Good luck with everything.

Jesse Singh: Appreciate it. Thank you, Susan.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mike Dahl: Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. First one on the cost tailwinds. So, I think, Pete, you articulated that that $40 million in known deflation and production tailwinds, maybe that comes down to $35 million when your account for the Vycom divestiture. Can you just elaborate more on, what you’re seeing on the raw material side? And you talked about this being known deflation on the balance sheet, so is there potential for additional deflationary benefits if raw mats stay where they are today and you cycle into — you continue to cycle into that in your WACC?