The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of C. Gregory Peters from Raymond James. Your question please.

C. Gregory Peters: Good morning everyone. Tough quarter and a tough year for the company. I was looking at Slide 11 in the supplement. And this is the slide that talks about the Allstate brand auto state profitability. And if we look at the number of states that have a combined ratio above 100, it steadily increased through the fourth quarter and it kind of a contrary to the comments you made about the rate that you applied and achieved in the year. So my question is what type of expectation do you have for that category of states above 100 as we move through 2023? Is it kind of peak here at 41? Do you think it could get worse? Or what’s your expectation going forward of how that might trend?

Tom Wilson: Greg, let me provide an overview, then Mario can jump in on it. First, as we said and you know well that improving auto profitability will be a key to driving shareholder value. So we’re all over that. We’ve made a lot of progress. Mario showed about the rate increases. And so of the $4.1 billion that we think will still come true, or that will come through from the rate increases we’ve already implemented, we’ve got $1.2 billion, $2.6 billion of that should show up in 2023. And I would point out that, that’s not in those combined ratio numbers. So our objective is to make money in every line in every state. So no cross subsidies between states, no cross-subsidies between lines. Now, of course, that’s hard to do with as many lines as many states we’re in, but that’s our objective.

And so the amount €“ that amount that’s not reflected in the €“ some of those states. We think some of those states are probably adequately priced today. There are many that are not, and so we’ll continue to drive those. But I would expect to see that number come down. But we don’t have a target of €“ we’re at 41 at the end of the year. We want to be at some XX at the end of the first quarter. It’s every state, every line, make money every year. Mario, would you want to add some additional color to that?

Mario Rizzo: Sure. And thanks for the question, Greg. Look, I think when you look at that trend of states above 100 and the increase throughout the year, I think what I’d point you to is when you just €“ you look at our underlying auto combined ratio as we reported it, increasing throughout the year and being driven by increases in our severity expectations quarter-over-quarter as the year played out, as well as increasing frequency between Q1 through Q4, only partially being offset by the rate that we took. So I think that chart mirrors what we show you in aggregate in terms of the reported underlying combined ratio. But when you look at our business from a state perspective, I think it’s important to really categorize states into a couple of different buckets.

I think there’s a group of states that while we certainly are pleased with the outcome of an underwriting loss, given the actions we’ve taken, particularly from a rate perspective as well as underwriting actions, we feel like we’re positioned in a good place. Now you can’t predict the future in terms of the path of inflation or severity going forward. But given the actions we’ve taken, we feel good about where we’re positioned and what the outlook looks like for 2023. I put states like Texas, Georgia, a couple of large states for us where we’ve implemented significant rates and have been successful in doing so. And so we feel good about the outlook. Again, we’ll have to adapt to what changes in the future, but I think there is a lot of states that falls into that category.