The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Steve Coughlin: Sure. So, look, first of all, we’re very happy to have the optionality from the IRA on choosing ITC or PTC newly for solar, as well as having the ITC for storage. So, typically we’re going to choose the tax credit structure that yields the highest return in the project. So, it’s great to have that optionality. I would say, going forward, the ITC €“ there is a difference in the earnings profile. There’s an upfront recognition of the ITC versus the PTC is spread out over 10 years, but other than that, you’d expect the lifetime earnings roughly to be the same if the credit structure yielded roughly the same returns. So, in this case, we have about €“ in AES’ case, about one-third of our pipeline, we believe, will qualify for the energy community adder.

And so, we feel that we’re going to be very competitively positioned to get at least the 40% level for about one-third of our pipeline. So, that’s a good thing. I would say in terms of where the credit accrues, I think it’s going to be a mix of things. Certainly, there’s been higher costs that the industry has absorbed on the order of 30%. I think part of it goes to absorbing that impact of higher costs in renewables. I would say some will go to competitiveness in terms of bidding for the PPAs. And largely, as Andres has talked about before, we see there being more of a constraint on the supply side in the renewables market. So, we do see that continued strong demand, but that there’s going to be constraints on the supply side of projects being ready to meet that demand and that will have some upward pressure on returns.

Andres Gluski: Yes. Angie, the way I’d put it is that the cost increases have largely been absorbed by the market. So, we’re seeing constant margins. What you saw the last year, there was less commissioning of new projects in renewables than it was expected by a big factor, like 40%. So, what a lot of the clients have done has postponed some of their renewable goals, but eventually, what you’re going to see is a shortage in the market. So, we feel confident about that, and that’s why we’re continuing to invest to build that pipeline to be able to respond to that demand. So, those are the dynamics. This is a market that, yes, while it’s very competitive, the dynamics are positive. And then we are also selling a lot of our projects are differentiated projects. So, they’re structured projects. They bring something to the table other just than your PPA.

Angie Storozynski: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. This is for Nick today. First, a quick question on the Analyst Day. Can we just get some color on your thoughts on the timing? I know you mentioned spring, but what are some of the specific drivers to determine the timing of the Analyst Day?

Steve Coughlin: Yes. I mean €“ so first of all, Andres mentioned, we will be discussing new business segments. So, we are closing out 2022 under our current segments. We will then move over to new segments very shortly. And so, part of the timing is to fully make that transition internally and then to be able to come out in the spring time frame with that look at the new segments, the new way of looking at AES going forward, as well as discussion about guidance beyond 2025.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks. And just maybe just on the asset sales proceeds. I know you’re feeling some of the add to sales proceeds with the parent debt issuance, but as we think about the CAGR currently, can you just €“ are you able to continue to bridge this growth rate without any additional common equity? Just want to check in on that.