The Aaron’s Company, Inc. (NYSE:AAN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Steve Olsen: Yes, hey, Jason, this is Steve Olson, thanks for the question. Yes, we continue to make progress on our BrandsMart Leasing solution that is in our BrandsMart stores. Just to remind you, we launched this solution in the May-June timeframe of last year, — still really early in the process. Teams are working very well together between the BrandsMart stores and our BrandsMart Leasing team. And we continue to refine the business processes, procedures and the necessary tools to run that business. And it’s a small percentage of the overall pie. But we’re pleased with the progress we’re making.

Jason Haas: Great, thank you. And then Douglas, I wanted to follow up on your comments just earlier about, you’re seeing an improvement in write-offs in 1Q, is that — do you think that’s largely reflecting tighter decisioning? And those leases that were decisioned later with tighter standards, bring the write-offs down? Or are you seeing any signs that the customers may be stabilizing on with inflation rates, like moderating at least a little bit here? Just curious if there’s any sort of signs of the macro improving, or that was more internally driven?

Douglas Lindsay: Yes. I think it’s a little of both. I think our customers are acclimating to a new normal in terms of inflation rates, although, we still do see some pressure, I think the majority of the improvement we’re seeing are the decisioning changes and enhancements to our models we’ve made over the last year, we continue to look at it and make sure that we’re always solving for risk adjusted margin, and really trying to set the customer up for success. We’ve done that actively in the fourth quarter, as well as enhancing our processes. And as I said, models, so I think what we’re seeing is a little acclimation, but a lot of proactive management in terms of our lease decision. And we’re really encouraged with the results. We’ve got momentum on that going into the year despite the demand trends.

Kelly Wall: Yes. And Jason, it’s Kelly, what I would add is that we are expecting for the full year 2023 to write-offs to improve relative 2022. For 2023, we’re expecting write-offs to come in kind of a range of 5.5% to 6.5%. So that’s about a 50 basis point improvement from a range that we gave in 2022. And as we continue to make progress to the course of the year, but the benefits from our decisioning activities, as well as improvement in customer activity in the back part of the year, as we go into 2024 and beyond, we’d expect to be down in that kind of 5% to 6% range going forward long term.

Jason Haas: Great. Thank you. And if I could squeeze one more in, I think you mentioned that you’re not factoring in any benefit from credit tightening in the guidance. I’m just curious what your thoughts are, in terms of, we have seen some others talk about better hiring the credit stock talks about tightening. I don’t think a lot of your peers have meaningfully seen the timing yet. So just curious to get your thoughts on even though it’s not guidance, any thoughts on like, when we may see some benefit from credit tightening?

Douglas Lindsay: Yes, right now, we’re not seeing any increase in demand from higher credit scores coming into either Aaron’s or BrandsMart Leasing. It’s really tough to gauge what’s going on with the consumer right now. And that we’re all looking at rising debt balances and lower savings rates, et cetera with our customers. The only thing I’d say is we don’t have that baked into our guidance, any benefit for that during the year. But should default rates continue to rise and credit get restricted, we believe our market will expand and we’ll be the beneficiaries. We’re continuing to look at external data sources and our own internal data sources to see if that’s happening both at BrandsMart and at Aaron’s. So far, we’ve seen no strong signs of it, but we’ll continue to monitor I mean what I’d say is, we’re ready for it.