Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Tesla, Inc. on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TSLA. Tesla, Inc.’s share was trading at $430.14 as of December 1st. TSLA’s trailing and forward P/E were 296.67 and 192.31 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Tesla (TSLA) is increasingly positioning itself at the forefront of AI-driven autonomy and robotics, with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology directly informing the development of Optimus, a humanoid robot platform that Elon Musk has called “the largest product opportunity in history.” The company’s Master Plan Part 4, unveiled in September 2025, underscores this shift toward AI and robotics, with Musk projecting that robots could ultimately represent approximately 80% of Tesla’s long-term value. Recent reports indicate a $685 million order from Sanhua for linear actuators, suggesting production capacity for roughly 180,000 robots.

Tesla aims to scale output to several thousand units in 2025, 50,000–100,000 in 2026, and between 500,000 and 1,000,000 annually by the end of the decade. The expected unit cost of $20,000–$30,000 aligns with a global humanoid market projected at $218 billion by 2030. Optimus 3 has been described as an “exceptional design,” featuring enhanced thermal, battery, and payload capabilities, while FSD neural networks transfer directly to humanoid control, with recent software updates expanding capabilities such as robotaxi-style drop-offs and global FSD availability.

Tesla’s long-term vision is ambitious, envisioning a $25 trillion company by 2050, where both energy and labor approach minimal marginal cost. Execution risks remain significant, encompassing hardware reliability, safety, and regulatory challenges. However, if Tesla can establish a repeatable and cost-effective robot supply chain, the company could diversify its income statement beyond vehicles, unlocking a high-margin AI-driven business with durable cash flow generation, creating a potentially transformative investment opportunity.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s long-term ambitions beyond automobiles, centered on autonomy, AI, robotics, energy, and data, despite near-term delivery and margin headwinds. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 84.37% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Tesla’s foundational vision in AI and robotics remains intact. The new thesis shares an identical perspective but emphasizes Tesla’s progress in humanoid robotics, production milestones, and potential revenue diversification beyond vehicles.

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Disclosure: None.