Terex Corporation (TEX): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Terex Corporation on Value Investors Club by lordbeaverbrook. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TEX. Terex Corporation’s share was trading at $60.65 as of January 13th. TEX’s trailing and forward P/E were 25.70 and 11.22 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Terex Corporation provides materials processing machinery and mobile elevating work platforms worldwide. TEX presents a unique and complex investment opportunity driven by a series of unconventional strategic moves. The company operates three distinct businesses: aerial work platforms in North America, Ireland-based mobile screening and crushing equipment, and Heil-branded garbage trucks, acquired for $2 billion from Dover in October 2024.

Historically, Terex has experienced cycles of acquisitions and divestitures, including the pivotal purchase of Genie’s aerial work platform business in 2002, followed by strategic divestments and a balance sheet strengthening under CEO John Garrison, who successfully completed a turnaround and set ambitious 2027 profit targets. Under current CEO Simon Meester, Terex pursued growth through acquisitions, starting with the Heil transaction, which added a new revenue stream but increased debt. In 2025, the core businesses showed mixed performance, with the aerial work platform and materials segments softening while the garbage truck division remained strong.

The situation became particularly unusual with Terex’s announced merger with REV Group, a deal structured with $425 million in cash and 48 million TEX shares going to REV shareholders, coupled with a planned divestment or spinoff of the Genie business. While the rationale for this abrupt strategy shift remains unclear, the experienced chair, David Sachs, who holds a material stake, provides confidence that management is pursuing value-enhancing moves.

If the merger is completed, shareholders would gain exposure to a combined entity with substantial growth potential and significant backlog. If the deal breaks, existing shareholders would retain a profitable, diversified business trading at an attractive valuation, with the aerial work platform unit alone representing substantial upside. Either outcome offers the potential for strong returns, making Terex a compelling, if unconventional, investment.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Terex Corporation (TEX) by Value Don’t Lie in February 2025, which highlighted the ESG acquisition as a stabilizing, higher-margin business, cyclical troughs in MP and AWP segments, and attractive valuation at 9.4x earnings. TEX’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 33.23% since our coverage. Lordbeaverbrook shares a similar bullish view but emphasizes the potential upside from the REV Group merger and related divestitures as new strategic catalysts.

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Disclosure: None.