TEGNA Inc. (NYSE:TGNA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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James Goss: All right. Secondly, you did mention bolt-on M&A potential. And I’m wondering if it’s — if Octillion is the sort of thing you had in mind or if you’re also talking about station acquisitions, if any of those are available? And on a related basis, do you think the regulatory environment could change at all if there was a change in administration? And would that benefit some of the M&A options you might have?

David Lougee: James, this is Dave again. I’ll take both of those. Yes. So Octillion is exactly the type of bolt-on — when we talk about bolt-on M&A, exactly that, right, something that doesn’t flex the balance sheet really at all. And with that, we can help drive our businesses, either existing ones or the ones that we build organically like Premion to the future. So that’s the right spot on, relative to the bolt-on acquisition topic. From a regulatory standpoint, we’ll see, Jim, obviously, historically, Republican administrations are typically more deregulation than Democratic once. And clearly, this particular Democratic administration, this particularly Democratic FCC, has been obviously quite rigid on keeping rules or even rolling back rules on where they were, and I’ll leave it at that.

But yes, I think the change in administration is potentially an opportunity. Also the question would be, even if there was the same administration, whether there might be a change in leadership, too. So it remains to be seen. We’re watching closely. But to your earlier conversations, at the moment, I don’t think we’ll never say never, but given where we are at the cap, I wouldn’t say our focus is on station M&A.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

David Karnovsky: Just given the added visibility on distribution and the variable model on the affiliate side, how do you think of the key drivers of the $200 million range in your free cash flow guide? Is that primarily building in for variability around advertising? And then a second question, Dave, you’ve noted TEGNA’s recent carriage of local sports. Some of that’s moving over from RSNs to San Antonio Spurs for instance in your footprint. As you’ve gone through some recent distribution renewals? I’m just interested to hear how MVPDs are looking at this content, whether that’s a factor at all in negotiations, just given how outsized RSN fees have been in the past?

David Lougee: Yes, I’ll take the second one first, Dave. Look, I’ll just simply — I don’t want to talk about any distribution deals, but I’ll just academically — I’ll put it this way. Obviously, local sports is amongst the most valuable content to consumers. And so if you just take that upstream relative to distributors, it’s very valuable to distributors as well. There might have been a loss of — a gap in value between what distributors had been paying under the old model. And so I think there’s — this change in ecosystem relates to some kind of more rationalization of that from the distributor standpoint. So — but I’ll just simply answer the question and say it, it certainly has value to distributors. Now might — some out there wish that they could be going off those fees and never pay anymore, certainly so. But they absolutely has value to distributors and we do know that.

Julie Heskett: And I’ll take the first question about the range of our free cash flow guide and what factors would play into that. And I would say it’s multifaceted, mostly around economic environment. So advertising would be 1 trigger of that range. Subscriber trends would be another factor. We do continue to forecast subscriber declines. But for the next 2 years, that is definitely a factor that may impact that. And then the third.

David Lougee: Political advertising, too. right. Because as you know, it’s given we — unlike some of our peers that might have 100-plus stations in a lot of small markets, we’re more concentrated in large. So our delta, as you’ve seen in previous election cycles, we flexed up, 55 million come out of nowhere for 2 center runoffs in Georgia 4 years ago, and we’ve seen it go the other direction when a very hot center race goes cold, when a candidate blows themselves up, so we can have sometimes a significant range of what political might be.

Operator: There are no further questions. I’d like to turn the call back over to Dave Lougee for closing remarks.

David Lougee: Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for the call this morning. As we said with our announcement this morning, we are now producing it for the first time, a 2-year free cash flow guide that we — is driven by our very sustainable and durable business model. We look forward to talking to you more in the quarters ahead as we talk about results in the year going forward, and appreciate your interest. Thank you, and everyone, have a good day.

Operator: Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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