Target Corporation (TGT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Target Corporation on Quality Value Investing’s Substack by David J. Waldron. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TGT. Target Corporation’s share was trading at $105.47 as of January 30th. TGT’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.43 and 11.05 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is a large-cap, dividend-paying retailer in the U.S. consumer staples sector, operating as a general merchandise store with a strong in-person presence, particularly among Millennials. Founded in 1902 and headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Target combines brick-and-mortar retail with local store-driven online fulfillment, making it a familiar and convenient destination for shoppers who prefer in-store experiences.

While Morningstar assigns Target a “none” moat rating due to its lack of sustainable cost advantages, pricing power, or intangible assets, the company continues to maintain relevance through its customer base and operational footprint. Over the trailing five years, Target delivered mid-single-digit annualized revenue growth, underperforming the broader S&P 500, and recently recorded a 2.2% decline in revenue over the past 12 months. Its net profit margin remains modest, consistent with industry norms, with a gross margin of 54.7% below the S&P 500 benchmark.

Management has generated double-digit returns on equity, aided by active share repurchase programs totaling $152 million in Q3 2025, with $8.3 billion still authorized, though return on invested capital lags the broader market and barely exceeds the company’s cost of capital. Owners’ earnings, which combine EPS and dividend growth, have remained in the double digits, though free cash flow growth has been negative. Overall, Target presents a stable profile with predictable dividend payments, moderate growth, and a familiar brand positioning, making it an attractive option for investors seeking consistent dividend yields and steady capital gains over time.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Target Corporation (TGT) by LongYield in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s digital momentum, cost control, and capital deployment through share repurchases and dividends. TGT’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 11.85% since our coverage. David J. Waldron shares a similar thesis but emphasizes Target’s stable dividend profile and consistent owners’ earnings for investors seeking reliable yields and steady capital gains.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.