Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Despite a challenging 2023, our revenue remains well on track to grow between 15% and 20% CAGR over the next several years in U.S. dollar terms, which is the target we communicated back in January 2022 investor conference. With our 2024 CapEx guidance of US$28 billion to US$32 billion, the rate of increase of our capital spending has begun to level-off as we capture and harvest the growth. The objectives of TSMC’s capital management are to fund the company’s growth organically, generate good profitability, preserve financial flexibility, and distribute a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend to shareholders. As a result of our rigorous capital management, in November, TSMC’s Board of Directors approved the distribution of a NT$3.5 per share cash dividend for the third quarter of 2023, up from NT$3 previously.

This will become the new minimum quarterly dividend level going forward. Third quarter ’23 cash dividend will be distributed in April 2024. In 2023, TSMC’s shareholders received a total of NT$11.25 cash dividend per share, and they will receive at least NT$13.5 per share cash dividend for 2024. In the next few years, we expect the focus of our cash dividend policy to continue to shift from a sustainable to a steadily increasing cash dividend per share. Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

C. C. Wei : Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our 2024 outlook. 2023 was a challenging year for the global semiconductor industry, but we also witnessed the rising emergency of generative AI related applications with TSMC as a key enabler. In 2023, weakening global macroeconomic conditions and high inflation and interest rate exaggerate and prolong the global semiconductor inventory adjustment cycle. Concluding 2023, the semiconductor industry excluding memory industry declined about 2%, while foundry industry declined about 13% year-over-year. TSMC’s revenue declined 8.7% year-over-year in U.S. dollar term. Despite the near-term challenges, our technology leadership enable TSMC to outperform the foundry industry in 2023 while we are positioning us to capture the future AI and high-performance computing related growth opportunities.

Entering 2024, we forecast fabless semiconductor inventory to have returned to a higher level exceeding 2023. However, macroeconomic weakness and geopolitical uncertainties persist, potentially further weighing on consumer sentiment and the end market demand. Having said that, our business has buttoned out on a year-over-year basis and we expect 2024 to be a healthy growth year for TSMC, supported by continued strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technologies, strong demand for the 5-nanometer technologies and robust AI-related demand. Coming off the steep inventory correction and low base of 2023. For the full year of 2024, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory to increase by more than 10% year-over-year.

While foundry industry growth is forecast to be approximately 20%. For TSMC, supported by our technology leadership, a broader customer base, we are confident to outperform the foundry industry growth. We expect our business to grow quarter-over-quarters throughout 2024 and our full-year revenue expect to increase by low-to-mid 20% in U.S. data terms. Next, let me talk about our N3 and N3E ramp-up and progress. Our 3-nanometer technology are the most-advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology. As a result, almost all the world’s smartphone and HPC innovators working with TSMC on 3-nanometer technologies. Our N3 successfully entered volume production and enjoy a strong ramp in second half ’23, accounting for 6% of our total wafer revenue in 2023.

N3E further leveraged the strong foundation of N3 to extend our N3 family with enhanced performance, power, and yield. N3E has already into volume production in the fourth quarter of 2023. Supported by robust demand from customers in both smartphone and HPC applications, we expect revenue from our 3-nanometer technology to more than triple in 2024 and account for mid-teens percentage of our total wafer revenue. We also continue to provide further enhancement of our N3 technology, including N3P and the N3X. With our strategy of continuous enhancements of our 3-nanometer process technologies, we expect strong multiyear demand from our customers and are confident that our 3-nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

Now I will talk about the AI-related demand and our N2 status. The surge in AI-related demand in 2023 supports our already strong conviction that the structural demand for energy-efficient computing will accelerate in an intelligent and connected world. TSMC is a key enabler of AI applications. No matter which approach is taken, AI technology is evolving to use more complex AI models, as the amount of computation required for training and influence is increasing. As a result, AI model need to be supported by more powerful semiconductor hardware, which requires use of the most advanced semiconductor process technologies. Thus, the value of TSMC technology position is increasing and we are well-positioned to capture the major portion of the market in terms of semiconductor component in AI.

To address unassessable AI-related demand for energy-efficient computing power, customers rely on TSMC to provide the most leading-edge processing technology at scale with a dependable and predictable cadence of technology offering. At the same time, as process technology complexity increased the engagement lead time with customer also started much earlier. There is almost all the AI innovators are working with TSMC and we are observing a much higher level of customer interest and engagement at N2 as compared with N3 at a similar stage from both HPC and the smartphone applications. Our 2-nanometer technology will adopt narrow sheet transistor structure and be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy efficient when it is introduced in 2025.

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