Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Bruce Lu: Yes. Thank you.

C. C. Wei: Okay. Bruce, let me answer the question. Yes, we did see something different. The first, the maker is weaker than what we thought. Three months ago, we probably – probably more optimistic, but now it’s not. Also that is – for example, China economy’s recovery is actually also weaker than what we thought. And so the end market demand actually did not grow as we expected. So put all together, even we have a very good AIs processor demand is still not enough to offset all those kinds of macro impact. So now we expect that the whole year will become minus 10%. That’s what we thought.

Jeff Su: And in terms of by particular segment or is there a particular market?

C. C. Wei: It’s almost – well, thank you. You are asking me the question. It’s almost intact…

Bruce Lu: I understand my question. Thank you.

C. C. Wei: Yes. It’s overall market segment is being impacted because of – it’s a combination of the macroeconomics.

Bruce Lu: So can we conclude that other than AI, almost every application see some weakness in the second half?

C. C. Wei: You got it.

Bruce Lu: Thank you.

Jeff Su: Okay. Thank you, Bruce. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator: Next one to ask question is Gokul Hariharan from JP Morgan.

Jeff Su: Gokul, you are back. Okay.

Gokul Hariharan: Yes, sorry about that. So next question, just wanted to ask about TSMC management’s view on the current inventory cycle. It looks like this cycle is a much – taking it much longer to get through the down cycle compared to ’19 and 2015. When do you think we kind of bottom out? And do you feel that the recovery in next year is going to be a strong recovery? Or you think it’s going to be a more gradual recovery? What are the kind of plans that we are putting in place as we think about next year’s recovery once inventory situation last cycle [ph] Thank you.

Jeff Su: Okay. So Gokul’s second question is about the inventory correction cycle. He notes this cycle seems to be taking much longer to get through as compared to 2019 and/or 2015. So his second question is when do we think this cycle can bottom out? What will 2024 next year look like? Do we expect a strong recovery? And what factors are we looking at? Is that correct, Gokul?

Gokul Hariharan: Yes. Thanks. Thanks a lot.

C. C. Wei: Okay. Gokul, this is a good question. Let me answer it in a short one sentences, all about the bank core [ph] I mean I just say the macroeconomic is not so – it’s become weaker than we thought. In fact, higher inflation and interest rate impact end demand in all market segments, in every region in the world. As we said, under such situation, our customers are more cautious in their inventory control in the second half of this year. So while we expect the fabless semiconductor industry, their inventory to be cleaner and healthier existing this year, but we’re much closer to the seasonal level, but our expectation for them, they will continue to manage their inventory. And 2024, it is still dependent on the macro situation. Gokul?

Gokul Hariharan: Okay. So, excuse me, so that – it sounds like you’re still expecting at least early part of next year to still be a little bit challenging, similar to what it is looking like right now. Is that fair to say?

C. C. Wei: Look, if you are…

Gokul Hariharan: About next year…

C. C. Wei: Gokul, we will give you our comment next time for 2024.

Gokul Hariharan: Thank you.

Jeff Su: Thank you, Gokul. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator: Next one, we have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

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