Synovus Financial Corp. (NYSE:SNV) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Steven Alexopoulos: Got it. Okay, thanks. If I could ask one other question. So you guys had 3% core revenue growth in 2023, really strong fee income growth. And if I look at the guide, you’re down 3% plus 1%. When I think about the company, your markets, your position, I think back to the Investor Day, all the initiatives, when I look at this really for you, Kevin, are you pleased with that level of growth? And is it that, I perceive you to be more of a strong organic growth company, but you’re more about improving efficiency if you will. Just curious, your take on the revenue capabilities of the company here this year. Thanks.

Kevin Blair: Yeah. I think the percent growth in revenue is much more of a function of the decline in the NIM from first quarter to fourth quarter. And so when you look at a full year-over-year increase in revenue, it shows that negative number. But when you look at it more on an inflection point and you go back to fourth quarter earnings from ’23 versus fourth quarter of ’24, what you’ll see is that there’s an 8% to 10% growth in PPNR. And I think that’s what does get me excited. And it really does show the strength of our model, Steve, and our footprint and our ability to grow. But what you’re seeing when you look at year-over-year is much more of the financial metrics declining in margin during ’23, which makes that year-over-year comparison look muted.

But when you look at it on a more apples-to-apples basis, fourth quarter versus fourth quarter, you’re looking at an 8% — 10% growth in bottom line, which I think, again, is much more constructive and supporting of our growth story.

Steven Alexopoulos: Got it. Okay, thanks for taking my questions.

Operator: Our next question today comes from Brady Gailey from KBW. Please go ahead.

Brady Gailey: Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Kevin Blair: Good morning, Brady.

Brady Gailey: I just — my first question is on GreenSky. I understand the somewhat one-time in nature income that happened in 4Q, and that will happen in 1Q. But as you look longer term, what is the earnings impact that GreenSky could add to Synovus? And I think all that is realized in fee income, correct?

Kevin Blair: It is, Brady. And look, I said this on a previous call, the number could be between $20 million and $30 million in revenue for the go-forward program. And it’s really a function more so of what the underlying production is of the new entity. And so we’ll continue to generate revenue based on that production, and we’ll get a maintenance administration fee on anything that still sits on the book. So our revenue will be much more tied to the production volumes that they’re doing. But again, I think a good rule of thumb for this coming year is $20 million to $30 million.

Brady Gailey: Okay. All right, that’s helpful. And then, you know, Kevin, as you look bigger picture, there’s been so much change at Synovus over recent years. I know just in 2023, you exited medical office and auto, you did the bond restructuring. Are you happy with where the business sits right now? Or are there other big strategic moves that we should be expecting going forward?

Kevin Blair: Look, I’m happy with where our business mix sits today. I think there are opportunities to continue to over-invest in certain businesses, whether that’s our middle market platform, our private wealth platform, our banking as a service. And so you’ll see us continue to make strategic investments in those areas. But as it relates to things like loan sales or exiting businesses, I think those — you will not see a lot of that going forward. And when you look at our loan slide we provided this quarter, and you look at where we grew, some of those strategic growth engines, like middle market, specialty, community bank are growing, where you see strategic declines in things like our third-party consumer, which will continue to decline for the foreseeable future, as well as national accounts.

Those won’t be sales, but they’ll be slow drawdowns of those balances because they’re not obviously relationship focused. But the wild card on growth really comes in those market activity declines that we saw this past quarter, where you see institutional CRE, where payoffs are increasing because they’ve been at historically low levels or senior housing, same thing, we’re seeing a more constructive marketplace for sales and refinance activity with some of the agencies. And so, as I look at the business and just put loans on that as an example, I feel really good about where we are. We’ll be growing some faster than others. We’ll be strategically shrinking some portfolios, but you won’t see the dramatic balance sheet or business mix optimization like we’ve seen in ’23.

Brady Gailey: Okay, got it. Thanks, Kevin.

Operator: Our next question comes from Brandon King from Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Brandon King: Hey, good morning.

Kevin Blair: Good morning, Brandon.

Brandon King: So, previously, CD pricing was thought to be a headwind to NII and the margin, I guess that’s still the case short term. But could you give us an update on your CD strategy going forward as we potentially enter an easing cycle?

Jamie Gregory: Well, look, Brandon, on CD strategy, we still have a lot of renewing CDs that will come forward in the coming quarters. And so we’re going to continue to be very aggressive at pricing those CDs at market rates to keep them on the books. Obviously, the marginal rate of a new CD, when you look at this past quarter, it was 4.40% when you combine production and renewals, which was actually down about 20 basis points versus the previous quarter. And so it shows you that there’s been a little bit of a rationalization in the marketplace from a competitive perspective. But our portfolio is at about 4.16% today. So as we continue to produce new CDs, which again, appears to be the decision of the consumer, people are still moving money from money market accounts into time deposit.